Ukraine crisis has China walking line between Russia and U.S.

2014-03-12

Analysis by Martin Sieff

The Ukraine crisis is putting China on the horns of a dilemma between Russia on one side and the United States and Western Europe on the other.

“The Chinese views of this crisis are extremely complex,” Charles W. Freeman, Jr., co-chairman of the U.S. China Policy Foundation, told Asia Pacific Defense Forum [APDF] in an interview. “I think the Chinese are probably counselling restraint in Moscow.”

On March 2, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang “urged all sides involved in the Ukraine situation to comply with international law and seek a political solution to their disputes through dialogue and negotiations.

“China is deeply concerned with the current Ukraine situation,” Qin told reporters. He had been asked to state China’s position after the Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian parliament, authorized President Vladimir Putin to use military force if he judged it necessary to protect Russian citizens and soldiers in Ukrainian territory.

Qin condemned the use of violence by all parties in the Ukraine crisis. China’s state news agency Xinhua reported Qin said China had advised all sides in Ukraine to resolve their conflicts peacefully in accordance with the country’s law, safeguard the legitimate rights of the Ukrainian people and reestablish social order as quickly as possible.

Qin emphasized that China was basing its position on the Ukrainian issue on the principle of non-interference in any country’s internal affairs. Beijing continued to respect the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, Xinhua reported.

Continuing good relations and steadily expanding trade with both the 27-nation European Union and the United States are central to President Xi Jinping’s strategy.

“The political legitimacy of all modern Chinese governments rests on their continuing ability to provide economic growth and rising standards of living to their people,” Ralph Winnie, head of the China program at the Eurasian Business Coalition, told APDF.

China seeks to maintain relations with U.S., Russia

China needs the continued friendship of the United States. However, China also has strong connections with and sympathies for Russia.

Russia has been China’s main strategic ally for almost 13 years since the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was launched in its completed form at the Shanghai summit on June 15, 2001.

China also shares Russia’s concern that the United States and the EU might use the excuse of pro-democracy protests or full-scale revolutions to topple friendly neighboring governments or even eventually decentralize their own countries.

“On the one hand, the Chinese look at Ukraine and draw a comparison with Taiwan,” sympathizing with Russia’s desire to at least increase its influence on a major territory it ruled for centuries,” Freeman said.

“The Chinese also draw parallels between Crimea’s status in Ukraine and Tibet’s continuing inclusion their own country,” he said. “China is not going to champion the principle of self-determination in any context.”

Beijing has made clear that it wants to retain good relations with the new, pro-Western coalition government of Ukraine in Kiev, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying announced in Beijing on March 4. China wanted to maintain and expand its existing strategic partnership with Ukraine on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, Xinhua reported.

Hua told a daily press briefing that the Beijing government continues to monitor events unfolding in Ukraine and expressed hope that conditions are improving.

China takes cautious public stance

“We hope that the political process of resolving the crisis in Ukraine will continue to move ahead within the framework of the law,” Hua said.

Italian analyst Francesco Sisci, writing in Asia Times Online on March 5 argued that behind their careful, cautious public statements, Chinese leaders had been shocked by the toppling of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych by public protests and that they fundamentally remained on the side of Russia in the crisis.

“China has been shocked by developments in Ukraine, and it has sided with Russia, fearful that similar revolutions could threaten Beijing and also that a defeat in Ukraine could irritate Russia,” wrote Sisci, who is a columnist for the Italian daily newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore.

While China wanted to avoid angering the United States and the European Union in the crisis, it did not want to alienate Russia, its main strategic ally, Sisci wrote.

“For Beijing, distancing itself from Moscow at this moment would also arouse suspicions that China may be interested in weakening Russia’s hand in general, something that could help China in Central Asia and Siberia, where its economic might is growing and Moscow is scared for it,” he wrote.

Freeman agreed that China continues to regard Russia as a partner in maintaining security across Eurasia, and that this attitude also factored into China’s position on the crisis.

China’s response to U.S. focus on Asia

“The Chinese have responded to the Obama administration’s ‘[rebalance] to Asia’ by strengthening their ties with Russia in order to create a compensating strategic depth for themselves in Eurasia,” he told APDF.

A Xinhua commentary, reprinted in the state-published China Daily on March 5, stated, “With the EU having proved unable to broker peace in Ukraine, the West should now show more appreciation for what Russia can do to solve the crisis. Given Russia's historical and cultural influence in the country, the Kremlin is the piece that cannot be missing in this political puzzle.”

“The United States and European countries must work with, not against, Russia to tackle the crisis,” it concluded