North Korea could carry out next nuclear test by April

North Korea is expanding its underground facilities at Punggye-ri in its remote northeast and could be preparing for a fourth underground nuclear test within four to six weeks, the 38 North blog on North Korea reports.

“Recent commercial satellite imagery [conducted in February] indicates a significant acceleration in excavation activity at the West Portal area since last viewed in early December 2013. The size of the pile of spoil excavated from a new tunnel appears to have doubled in a period of a little over a month,” analyst Jack Liu writes. The 38 North blog is based at the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, D.C.

“Once a decision is made in Pyongyang, indicators visible in satellite imagery of an impending nuclear test can appear four to six weeks prior to the test, both near the tunnel entrance and in other areas of the site,” he warned.

While “there is no evidence that points to Pyongyang’s preparation for another nuclear test, if a decision were made tomorrow, it could conduct a blast probably by late March or April,” said Joel Wit, a former United States Department of State official and editor of the blog, according to South Korea’s Arirang TV News.

Liu cautioned that until such indicators are detected, “based on the most recent satellite imagery, there are no signs that a test is in preparation. If these estimates are correct, they represent a significant acceleration of North Korean efforts since the beginning of 2014 to complete excavation of this new tunnel.

“In addition to the tunnel under excavation at the West Portal area, North Korea appears to have two completed tunnels at the South Portal area that could be used for a nuclear test if Pyongyang decided to conduct one,” Liu wrote. “When last viewed in early December 2013 there were no signs of test preparations, although it is likely a test could be prepared in one to two months once the order is given by Pyongyang.”

South Korean official discusses potential nuclear test

Pyongyang “appears ready to conduct its fourth nuclear test, but no imminent signs have been detected at its main site on its northeastern tip,” South Korea Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin told parliament in Seoul on Feb. 10, the official Yonhap news agency reported.

“During a parliamentary interpellation session, Kim Kwan-jin said Pyongyang has prepared for an underground nuclear test at the Punggye-ri site, which was used for the third atomic test a year ago, and has taken ‘initial steps’ for a missile launch at its northwest test site in Tongchang-ri,” the Yonhap report said.

“These things [the nuclear test and the missile launch] depend on the decision by the North Korean leadership. As seen in the past, the long-range missile test and the nuclear test are connected to each other,” Kim said according to the Yonhap report. “We are closely watching [the North Korean military] to prepare against any provocations.”

North Korea is likely to try to carry out another type of provocation, most likely another attempted test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile [ICBM], to trigger international protests or sanctions, analyst Zachary Keck said. North Korea would use that as a justification for its next nuclear test. He based this prediction on previous patterns of behavior by Pyongyang before earlier tests.

“The country appears to be laying the groundwork to begin a new round of provocations, which could very well take the form of a missile and/or nuclear test,” Keck wrote in The Diplomat.

“Despite its deliberate … attempts to portray itself as an irrational actor, North Korea’s provocations usually follow a well-worn playbook,” he wrote.

North Korea had integrated its pattern of ICBM and underground nuclear testing into a set pattern to maintain its reputation, Ralph Winnie, said vice president of the Eurasian Business Coalition. The country is trying to leverage its weapons of mass destruction [WMD] development programs to squeeze more concessions out of South Korea and other nations, he said.

Kim Jong-un had continued the careful pattern of behavior in building up to nuclear tests that had been developed under his father, Kim Jong-il, who died in December 2011, he told the Asia Pacific Defense Forum [APDF].

“Their behavior is certainly rational in terms of the perceptions of the policymakers who frame it,” Winnie said. “The only effective way to modify that behavior is to work with China to constructively engage the [North Korean] leadership and convince it that it is in its own interest to modify its behavior,” he said.

Analyst: North Korea behavior may backfire

North Korea’s pattern of behavior in preparing for nuclear tests and ICBM launches threatened to backfire and make it more isolated and unpredictable than ever, analyst Joseph R. DeTrani warned. DeTrani served as special envoy for the Six-Party Talks with North Korea from 2003 to 2006 and is president of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance.

“It’s likely the North will persist with another nuclear test and additional missile launches, probably to include the KN-08, a mobile inter-continental ballistic missile with significant reach,” DeTrani wrote in Asia Times Online.

“Based on the North’s past behavior,” its goal of developing weapons of mass destruction “will likely be pursued at any cost, including diverting scarce resources from producing food for its people,” he warned. “Compounding these issues is North Korea’s history of proliferation, which includes selling missiles to countries like Syria and Libya and, in the case of Syria, providing a plutonium reactor, at Al-Kabar, that was destroyed by Israel in 2007.”