How U.S.-China relationship will transform under the new American president – expert
The debates proved that regardless of which of the US presidential candidates comes to power, the US-China trade confrontation will continue, Kazinform News Agency correspondent reports.
In particular, Kamala Harris noted that Donald Trump showed weakness in relations with China, which indicates her intention to continue the policy of the Biden administration, which not only maintained the sanctions imposed by Donald Trump, but also increased their number against China.
Policy of the Trump and Biden administrations towards China
In order to understand the policy the US presidential candidates will pursue towards the Chinese vector, it is necessary to look at their actions during their time in power.
Donald Trump began his presidential term with an anti-Chinese agenda. In December 2016, the first telephone conversation took place between the President of the United States and the President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen. This was the first contact between the two leaders since 1979 and a signal for Beijing.
Trump lived up to his promises and started a trade war with China in 2017, which he spearheaded in his election campaign.
In early 2018, the Indo-Pacific National Security Strategy was approved marking the start of Donald Trump's strategy to counter the strengthening of China.
The U.S. Department of Justice has launched the China Initiative to prevent China's clandestine activities in the United States.
It should be noted that President Trump paid more attention to the country's internal problems, and entrusted relations with China to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
After many years of customs duties and negotiations, in January 2020, the U.S. President and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He signed the long-awaited Partial Trade Agreement which was supposed to reduce tensions in the Chinese-American trade war. As per the agreement, the United States agreed to halve some additional tariffs on Chinese products in return for Beijing's promises in the field of intellectual property protection and willingness to import $200 billion worth of American goods and services in the fields of industry, agriculture and energy. At the same time, many export tariffs imposed between the two nations during the trade war remained in force and were the subject of further complex negotiations.
It bears to remind that Washington accuses the Chinese authorities of protectionism and unfair business practices, referring to the government subsidies for local enterprises and administrative rules that complicate the work of U.S. firms in China.
In 2020 alone, the Trump administration took at least 210 actions related to China spanning more than 10 departments: starting from indictments and arrests, visa restrictions, blocking imports of goods, export controls, recognition of Huawei and ZTE Corporation as threats to national security, restrictions for Chinese journalists, to sanctions against 90 Chinese legal entities and individuals.
The new US President Joe Biden, coming to power on January 20, 2021, immediately made it clear that he was in no hurry to depart from the policy of the Trump administration.
According to conservative estimates, about 150 Chinese companies and a dozen individuals have been included in the new US blacklists.
A number of laws have been adopted against China: "On Strategic Competition" (April 2021), "On banning all goods from Xinjiang" (July 2021), "On Competition in America" (February 2022) and others. Biden issued executive orders to expand Donald Trump's ban on American investments against 59 Chinese companies (June 2021) and limit U.S. investment in Chinese technology (August 2023).
It is worth pointing out that the United States and China reached an agreement on climate cooperation (November 2023) and the resumption of military negotiations (December 2023) after Beijing discontinued dialogue with Washington through military departments in August 2022 due to the visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan.
U.S.-China total volume of trade in goods (exports and imports) from 2014 to 2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)
According to statistics, the trade turnover between the United States and China during the Trump administration from 2017 to 2020 led to a decrease in U.S. exports to China (from 130 to 124.6 billion U.S. dollars) and imports (from 505.2 to 432.5 billion U.S. dollars).
A similar situation was observed during the Biden administration from 2021 to 2023, exports (from 151.4 to 147.8 billion U.S. dollars) and imports (from 504.3 to 427.2 billion U.S. dollars) of the United States decreased.
How U.S.-China relationship will transform in the event of Trump or Harris coming to power
Ralph Winnie, Vice President of the Eurasian Center, noted the candidates' different approaches to building relations with China.
According to the expert, Kamala Harris will continue the policy of Joe Biden, which is characterized by a more traditional, diplomatic and multilateral approach towards China.
In particular, the U.S. will continue to pursue the policy of cooperating with American allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region to develop a unified policy towards Beijing.
“The United States will continue to develop cooperation with China in the field of climate, military contacts, artificial intelligence, and drug control, but will also actively take measures to prevent ‘unfair trade’ from China in order to protect American industry and business,” Ralph Winnie noted.
If the Republican candidate comes to power, Donald Trump will try to reach an agreement with the Chinese side.
“Donald Trump will try to sit down at the negotiating table with China, get concessions from them and conclude another bilateral ‘trade agreement’,” Ralph Winnie added.
Donald Trump is considered an unpredictable politician, unlike his opponent. In addition, China is characterized as a very tough negotiator, which may intensify the trade war between the nations.
The expert notes that both U.S. presidential candidates followed their distinctive political courses earlier within the framework of the Trump and Biden administrations and a sharp change in their views on China is unlikely.
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