Corporate Council on Africa U.S.-Africa Business Summit in Chicago

At DACOR

In Uzbekistan

On June 6th, 2014 Ralph  Winnie, Jr. was invited by the Government of Uzbekistan as part of a VIP select international delegation to facilitate cooperation with international financial institutions and investors to implement projects aimed at attracting modern agricultural technologies, increasing productivity and yield of fruits, grapes and vegetables as well as improving infrastructure and logistics. Ralph Winnie, Jr. Is waiting to hear the upcoming keynote address by Islam Karimov, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, in the Palace of Symposia, the National Library of the Republic of Uzbekistan which is named after Alisher Navoi.

EU-China Solar Panel Dispute

Five big takeaways from the World Russia Forum

Five big takeaways from the World Russia Forum
"Ralph Winnie, Jr. of the Eurasia Center described the potential to create a Russian “shale gas revolution” that would dwarf the size of the American shale gas revolution, while others talked up the prospects for Arctic oil and gas exploration."

At the World US-Russia Forum

Ambassador Sergey Ivanovich Kislyak of the Russian Federation

Speech in Uzbekistan (June 6, 2014)

Primer on ObamaCare

Achievement Award from Eurasia Center at Embassy of Belarus (January 30th, 2014)

Russia's Shale Gas Revolution (July 17th, 2014)

Shale oil production in the United States has soared, reversing a decades old decline in America’s crude output. One of the principal reasons is because of fields like North Dakota’s Bakken shale which could yield 24 billion barrels of oil in the decades to come. The Bakken is a huge boon both to the economic health of the Northern Plains states, but also to the petroleum balance of the USA> From just 60,000 barrels per day five years ago, the Bakken is now giving up 500,000 barrels per day with 210,000 barrels per day coming in just the past year.

However, as great as the Bakken is there is another oil shale play called the Bazhenov which is significant. The Bazhenov is in Western Siberia and while the Bakken is big, the Bazhenov covers 2.3 million square kilometers or 570 million acres which is the size of Texas and the Gulf of Mexico combined-80 times bigger than the Bakken.

Getting access to the Bazhenov is the focus of a new joint venture by both Exxon Mobil and Statoil with the Russian Federation’s Rosneft to jointly develop light oil production techniques in Western Siberia. The exploration work will take years to establish if the reserves are commercially viable. According to analysts, it won’t be hard for companies like Exxon and Statoil to export their shale fracking techniques to Siberia if Russia is able to deploy 30 drilling rigs to the area and then the Bazhenov could be producing one million barrels per day by 2020. The Russian Federation already produces about 10 million barrels of oil per day, putting it about a million barrels a day ahead of Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the Middle East. Given the fact that Putin recently announced tax incentives for exploration of shale oil in Western Siberia and is forecasting production of 2 million barrels per day by 2020, the potential for profit from Russia’s shale gas boom is enormous. This is quite evident now that Russian oil companies such as Gazprom Neft, Rosneft and Lukoil have teamed up with such international players like Exxon Mobil, Total, Statoil and Royal Dutch Shell to share costs and obtain the technology needed to explore for unconventional oil.

Lukoil’s Andrei Kuzyaev estimated that the cost of one horizontal well in Russia is $15-20 million compared to around $3.5 million in the United States-a figure which dropped from around $8million recently due to the highly competitive environment among drilling companies. Consequently, while Alexander Dyukov, CEO of Gazprom Neft, Russia’s fourth largest oil producer, acknowledged that Moscow is 5-7 years behind the United States in terms of technology needed to drill for unconventional oil, the gap is narrowing and with the help of their technology partners, Russian oil companies will eventually achieve the requisite knowledge.
The United States Energy Information Administration estimates that Russian recoverable shale oil reserves at 75 billion barrels, more than the 58 billion barrels held by the United States which is now the leader in shale oil production. Furthermore, Dyukov told reporters that Russia may look to domestic suppliers or those in Asia for drilling rigs which may allow the pumping of another 1 million barrels per day by 2020-2022 from the Bazhenov formation alone. To extract these volumes, Russia needs an additional 250-300 heavy drilling rigs, either domestic or Asian, most notably Chinese drilling rigs to facilitate Russia’s shale gas revolution.

However, Russia’s shale gas revolution could be hampered by Western sanctions which are limited for now, but already preventing some companies from making new investments in Russia which needs advanced technology to explore for unconventional oil. In fact, the United States and the European Union could ban exports of modern technology and application for use in the Russian oil sector which would affect further oil production. While this measure is only a possible option, according to a recent statement by Alfa Bank, it could affect primarily Artic shelf projects as well as hard to recover oil projects where foreign technology is required the most.

An interesting point to note is that despite the push by Western governments to isolate Moscow because of the situation in Ukraine, energy giants are deepening their relationships with Russian oil and gas companies by investing more money into the country. Exxon Mobil’s Exploration Chief, Neil Duffin, recently signed an agreement with Igor Sechin, head of Rosneft, to expand its joint ventures to drill offshore in the Artic Ocean, to explore for shale oil in Siberia and to cooperate on a liquefied natural gas plant in Vladivostok. This deal came just weeks after the United States imposed sanctions on the personal dealings, though not the corporate activities, of Sechin who is a longtime aide to President Vladimir Putin. Along with Exxon Mobil, British Petroleum and Total of France also signed contracts at the recent Russian business forum in St. Petersburg to explore for shale oil. Furthermore, Exxon Mobil plans to drill its first exploratory well offshore in the Russian sector of the Artic Ocean this summer. Statoil of Norway is in talks for another shale joint venture, Shell’s CEO, Ben van Beurden, met with Putin in April and said to him, “Now is the time to expand”, referring to a liquefied natural gas plant project.

It is acknowledged by many CEO’s who represent global oil and gas companies that they are taking a calculated risk, given the threat of further sanctions, but they also want to protect their long-term interests in Russia, the world’s largest energy exporting nation. According to David Goldwyn, who served as the State Department’s special envoy and coordinator for international energy affairs during President Obama’s firs term, “They are likely to continue to engage until there is a clear policy signal that they should stop. It is not rational to think they would act in any other way. If the government wants them to stop, it needs to say louder that they should stop.”

So far, the United States and the European Union have imposed only limited sanctions aimed at individual Russians and a handful of companies. The existing sanctions don’t explicitly bar the energy giants from operating in Russia. Though President Barack Obama authorized an executive order on March 20th, 2014 that could outlaw such deals, it has not yet been put into effect by the Treasury Department.

The risk for energy companies is that the next stage of sanctions will be broader, cutting off dealings with major sectors of the economy like finance, metals and energy. The United States and its allies proposed these kinds of sanctions at a Group of Sevens summit to be carried out if the violence in Ukraine did not subside (one month time frame).

The energy companies are walking a fine geopolitical line and are betting that the Russian oil and gas industry won’t be hit by direct sanctions. The energy industry provides financing for the Russian government and its military, making sanctions a threat to action in Ukraine, but the United States and Europe should tread cautiously given the industry’s strong role in affecting world markets. In short, most analysts and corporate CEO’s believe that Russian energy companies like Rosneft are too big to punish.

With Russian-West tensions at an all-time high, Moscow has started to look closer to home for partnerships and recently secured a 400 billion contract to supply natural gas to China. Furthermore, Gennady Timchenko, President Vladimir Putin’s key person for developing ties with China, stated publically that Russia could also import technology from China that would be very beneficial to Russia’s oil and gas industry.

Over the course of 30 years, the 400 million deal will involve piping natural gas from Russia’s Far East to China starting in 2018. There was initial skepticism that the deal would come to fruition because for almost two decades China and Russia slowly moved along the path of energy politics, attempting to carve out their respective roles. Russia wants to sell, the “voracious” Chinese market needs to be satisfied as millions of Chinese are moved out of poverty and into the middle class. Between 2006-2013 Chinese gas demand tripled from 56 billion cubic meters to 169 billion cubic meters, China is set to receive 38 billion cubic meters of gas under the deal over a 30 year arrangement starting in 2018. Such a deal reflects Putin’s assessment that “our Chinese friends drive a hard bargain” but “we managed to settle on contract terms that are not just acceptable conditions, but actually satisfy both sides.” All I will say to Putin is be careful that the Chinese do not try and re-negotiate the deal at a later point in time.

According to analysts, the Chinese-Russian 400 billion energy deal has made it imperative for European countries to diversify their gas imports away from Russia. Gazprom has kept an eye on Europe in terms of their desire to find other markets and the Chinese arrangement in that sense works out perfectly as it provides Russia’s energy industry an outlet to sidestep any kind of dependency and offers options for developing the Russian Far East which is a much neglected part of the Russian Federation. A huge investment will be required, but it is a gamble Putin is willing to take. From the Chinese perspective, natural gas is seen as vital to curbing China’s pollution problem which has caused many affluent Chinese to leave the country and settle elsewhere. This issue will continue to be on the reform agenda for some time given that Premier Li Keqiang has called for a “war on pollution.”

The other side of the deal is what it will do to other exporters. The United States is pertinent in this regard. The shale gas revolution not only weaned the United States off of any pending sense of energy dependence, but allowed the United States to turn its eye towards becoming a key supplier of natural gas to the East Asian region and Europe. In fact, in 2012 Barack Obama claimed that the United States was becoming “the Saudi Arabia of natural gas.”

The Russian-Chinese energy pact is Moscow’s statement to Washington that it too has an interest in the Far East and Asian markets. Some analysts allege and try to identify a Cold War Mentality in the deal, indicating the pedigree of Gazprom’s managers and the alleged shadow of the KGB. They allege that the “New Cold War is in part a struggle for market share.” Russia is building its clout as an energy supplier while diversifying its customer base.

While the Obama administration has tried to curb Chinese ambitions in the Asia-Pacific region with its statement of a “pivot” to the region, the Russians are exerting a tremendous amount of patience and resourcefulness in an effort to forge alliances and potential new energy markets. It can be inferred that other deals are bound to follow in an effort to exert energy independence and identify new sources of energy markets with countries such as India, Japan and South Korea, Furthermore, the 400 billion deal between China and Russia to supply 38bcm of natural gas a year has been widely interpreted as setting a new bench mark for what the Asian market can pay for gas. While the price was not disclosed, sources have put the price around $10 per million British thermal units which is close to what Russia receives for supplies sent to Europe. An improving Russian economy will allow its limitless resources to enable the country to emerge as a major gas supplier to the Asia Pacific as well.

Finally, some Russian analysts have criticized the China-Russia deal believing that the deal was rushed through to neutralize worries of political isolation and to convey the impression that Russia can easily switch sales to the East. Mr. Putin’s arch critic Boris Nemtsov said that the terms, to the extent that they are known, amount to “total loss and robbery” leaving Russia to foot the bill for $55 billion of investment needed to find the gas and build the pipeline infrastructure.

It will be 4-6 years before any gas is shipped to China. The Kremlin said that China may advance up to 25 billion to help defray the costs, but has conceded that this is not a fixed obligation, a point that has been widely discussed on Russian blogs, The haggling on terms has been contentious because, according to Putin, “Our Chinese friends are difficult, hard negotiators.”

In the Russian Federation, people have been funneling their money into usable assets like fridges, computers or cars. This effect has kept the country afloat for now and should prevent contradiction of GDP this year. The IMF expects growth in Russia to be .2pc this year, but figures could be worse if major sanctions go into effect. Therefore, Russia’s shale gas revolution presents many opportunities and challenges for the nation as it seeks to expand its role as a global energy superpower and create viable economic and political relationships.

US Agricultural Technologies and its Benefits for Uzbek Farmers (June 6th, 2014)

Agriculture has been a vital source of wealth for Uzbekistan for centuries. The country of nearly 30 million people is situated between two major rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, making the land between them fertile for agriculture. Since Uzbekistan’s independence in 1991, the country has relied on agriculture to meet nutritional and income generation needs of its people, and nearly one third of Uzbeks are employed in the agricultural sector in some capacity. The industry contributes to about 70% of internal trade in Uzbekistan and 20-30% of GDP.

Wheat and cotton are two of the most widely planted crops in Uzbekistan, both of which rely on irrigated land to grow successfully. The most common irrigation system in Uzbekistan is the furrow and flood method, which is highly water intensive. Unfortunately, this use of water is causing a deficit in the Aral Sea and the major rivers flowing from it, the Amy Darya and the Syr Darya. Insufficient water flows to the deltas of these rivers causes nutrient depletion in soils, soil salinization, loss of agricultural land and poor water quality. All of these problems caused by excessive water use will have a negative effect on the livelihoods of those living in rural communities, lead to environmental degradation, and undermine Uzbekistan’s agricultural industry-and thereby the country’s economy-in the long-term.

Fortunately, US agricultural technology engineers developed more efficient irrigation systems for American farmers who were facing similar problems. Farmers in the United States used contour furrowing from the 1930s until the 1970s as the primary system of irrigation. A study found, however, that contour furrowing and similar systems were not always beneficial to crop growth, especially in arid climates. By 1978, 35% of farms had introduced sprinkler irrigation systems, which needed less water than the traditional furrow irrigation systems that had been used for decades. Like the American Southwest, Uzbekistan has an arid climate, and can benefit from adopting sprinkler irrigation technologies which were found to be better suited to arid climates and to use less water than furrow and flood methods.

Since 1978, engineers in the United States have developed even more advanced irrigation methods that lead to higher crop yields and use even less water than do sprinkler systems. Drip and subsurface irrigation systems, in addition to sprinkler systems, all lead to higher crop yields than does the traditional furrow method. In addition, these newer systems are more efficient because they apply water to only a precise area surrounding the plant root, thereby conserving water. Micro sprinklers were found to operate at 95% efficiency, compared to the 60% efficiency of furrow and flood irrigation.

Although U.S. high efficiency systems were developed for large-scale farms, development organizations have been reinventing this technology to make it suitable and economically accessible for smallholding farmers in developing countries. For example, a drip irrigation kit of a style from the 1990s was available to farmers in India for approximately $32. New and improved models are even cheaper, at $14.5 per unit. The net return after installation of the newer drip system was $32, amortizing the investment in just one harvest.

In addition to transitioning to more efficient irrigation systems, water management and delivery systems can be improved to reduce water usage. The United States is moving toward small-scale, localized water facilities from large, central facilities that are expensive and often fail to accurately estimate future needs. This decentralized approach in combinations with more efficient irrigation systems previously discussed will allow farmers to produce higher yield crops using less water.

The establishment of bio-energy crops in marginal or degraded land may offer enhanced environmental benefits for countries such as Uzbekistan, including protection from soil erosion and nutrient leaching and improvement of soil properties. Of particular interest is the use of bio-energy crops as a vegetative filter to purify wastewater effluents applied to the soil. This practice is known as land treatment systems (LTS) or slow rate systems (RSRS) and meets both environmental and renewable bio-energy goals in the United States. Effluent can supply bio-energy crops with considerable amounts of water and nutrients which stimulate plant growth and yield. In addition, effluent application can reduce the competition between bio-energy crops and traditional crops with respect to the use of fresh water and it can also decrease production costs due to substitution of water and fertilizers. The effects of plan species such as castor bean v. sunflower and irrigation on soil properties and on seed and biodiesel yield were studied in a 3 year trial in the United States. As castor bean achieved greater seed yield that sunflower, the findings of the study suggested that wastewater effluent can constitute an important source of irrigation, water and nutrients for bio-energy crop cultivation with very minor adverse impacts on soil properties and seed yield.

Ethanol is another kind of technology that provides a vital value added market for corn and other commodities in rural America. Demand created by ethanol production increases the price a farmer receives for grain. Because growers are getting more output per acre than ever before, less land is needed to satisfy demand for food, feed and fuel. One third of every bushel of grain processed into ethanol is enhanced and returned to the animal feed market in the form of distillers grains, corn gluten feed or corn gluten meal. Ethanol production does not reduce the amount of food available for human consumption. An increasing amount of ethanol is produced from non-traditional feed stocks such as waster products from the beverage, food and forestry industries. In the very near future, expect to see ethanol produced from agricultural residues such as rice, straw, sugar cane bagasse and corn stover, municipal solid waste and energy crops such as switch grass. Finally, by increasing the demand for corn and raising corn prices, ethanol has helped to lower federal farm program costs in the United States.

Another new technology to consider involves bio-solids. Bio-solids are nutrient rich organic materials resulting from the treatment of sewage sludge which is the name for solid, semi-solid or liquid untreated residue generated during the treatment of domestic sewage in a treatment facility. When treated and processed, sewage sludge becomes bio-solids which can be safely recycled and applied as fertilizer to sustainably improve and maintain productive soils and stimulate plant growth. In the United States, only bio-solids that meet the most stringent standards spelled out in the Federal and State rules can be approved for use as a fertilizer. Today in the United States, because, of improved wastewater treatment, our waterways have been cleaned up and made safer for recreation and seafood harvest.

Lime effectively treats sewage bio-solids as well as industrial sludges and petroleum wastes. Treatment of biological wastes with lime is based on several chemical reactions. Calcium hydroxide is an alkaline component that can create PH levels as high as 12.4. At PH levels greater than 12 and increased temperatures, cell membranes of harmful pathogens are destroyed. The high PH also provides a vector attraction barrier preventing flies and other insects from infecting treated biological waste. Because lime has low solubility in water, lime molecules persist in bio-solids to prevent re-growth of pathogens. When quick lime is used with water, an exothermic reaction occurs. As heat is released, the temperature of the biological waste can increase to 70 degrees Celsius which provides effective pasteurization. The high PH also will precipitate most metals present in the waste and reduce solubility and mobility. Lime will also react with phosphorus compounds to prevent eutrophication. In general, lime stabilization is a non-proprietary process although patented processes are available.

This leads to my final point that there must be strong emphasis placed on protection of intellectual property regarding agricultural technologies to ensure that companies who wish to share their technology with Uzbek companies feel confident that their technology will not be reverse engineered in the mistaken belief that what is being done is innovation. I was pleased at the response that I received from Director Salikhov, during my meeting at the Ministry of Agriculture, as he and the Government of Uzbekistan appear to recognize the importance of this issue which is key to promoting successful business partnerships between Uzbek and American companies in promoting innovative technologies in the fields of agriculture.

Various Links featuring Ralph Winnie

Indonesia toughens stance over South China Sea

China’s North Korea collapse plan is credible, analysts say

OPINION: Russia, China, US Need to Collaborate on Cyber Security to Safeguard Trade

Indonesia plans to expand, restructure military to meet threats

China challenges call for South China Sea Code of Conduct

Ralph Winnie Interview

Letter from the Prime Minister of Uzbekistan

Ralph Winnie Profile

Ralph Winnie on Xi's visit to South Korea

Ralph Winnie at the Global Economy Conference

Ralph Winnie, Jr.- Speaker at US-China Green Energy Summit at World Bank

In October. 2011, Ralph E. Winnie, Jr. was invited by the China Association for Science and Technology to address the US-China Green Technology Forum at the World Bank. Mr. Winnie, Jr. discussed China's New

Energy Strategy and strategies for Shale Gas.

Ralph Winnie Jr. with David Plouffe and Paul Wolfowitz in Azerbaijan at US-Azerbaijan Conference

Ralph Winnie was part of the US delegation selected to attend the US-Azerbaijan

Convention in Baku, Azerbaijan May 28-29th 2013. 

Ralph Winnie Jr.'s Diplomatic Courier Article: "Obama and China: Moving Forward Together?"

Diplomatic Courier: "Obama and China: Moving Forward Together?"
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3tAu8i_sNeTYlVySWhpa1BQUDFiMTBfZE5FRnllLVU4V2lZ/edit

On January 19, 2011, U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao issued a joint statement at the end of Hu Jintao’s visit to Washington, D.C. It proclaimed their shared commitment to a “positive, co-operative and comprehensive U.S.-China relationship.” Each party reassured the other regarding his principal concern, announcing, “The United States reiterated that it welcomes a stronger, prosperous and successful China that plays a greater role in world affairs. China welcomes the USA as an Asia-Pacific nation that contributes to peace, stability, and prosperity in the region.”

Since the 2011 meeting, the two governments have set about implementing that stated objective. Top American and Chinese officials have exchanged visits and have engaged on major strategic and economic issues. Military to military ties were restarted, and, at the unofficial level, track two talks have explored the evolution and expansion of the U.S.-Chinese relationship. However, while co-operation has increased, significant groups in both countries have claimed that a contest for supremacy between China and the United States is inevitable.

Understanding that this sentiment has major international repercussions, outgoing President Hu Jintao and incoming President Xi Jinping have both used the phrase “A new type of major power relationship” to describe their hopes for the future of U.S.-China relations. However, neither the United States nor the Chinese government has speculated about what such a relationship would entail as neither government has provided official endorsement nor provided any specific content to the concept. Therefore, this will become the immediate task of the second Obama administration and the new Xi Jinping administration in order to ensure that U.S.-China relations move in a positive direction.

Given that the perception of the Obama administration is that China has made significant progress in allowing its currency to appreciate against the dollar, relations are likely to improve over the course of the next four years. However, the Obama administration will continue to urge China to do more, in behind-the-scenes negotiations, to allow further currency appreciation, to protect the intellectual property of American companies, to reform the financial system in China, and to provide a level playing field for companies that might want to invest in China.

Many multi-national companies would urge Obama to avoid picking a fight with China in order to grow and expand their business in China. However, labor unions, a core constituency of the Democratic Party, will want the Obama administration to take a firmer role with China to avoid perceived layoffs and loss of manufacturing jobs in the United States. It is worth noting that some people believe that Obama’s fiscal policies do not appear to be one of restraint, but, rather, one of continued stimulus and China will remain an important linchpin as the purchaser of U.S. Treasury bonds to finance the stimulus.

Furthermore, incoming President Xi Jinping has no personal connection with Deng Xiaoping and is not personally indebted to him. The smooth leadership transition in the last quarter of 2012 has removed a major uncertainty which was hanging over the financial markets in China. As China began the New Year, there appeared to be renewed confidence among the Chinese people that political stability and better economic conditions would coincide with improved bank credit conditions that should lead to higher infrastructure spending.

One of the top priorities for Xi Jinping will be a renewed focus on the execution of the twelfth 5 Year Plan with the over-reaching objective of reforming the country’s economy from a manufacturing to an innovation lead economy. In broad terms, it is likely that under the Xi Jinping administration there will be a commitment to urbanization and raising of living standards against a backdrop of demand for resources and solving pollution issues.

It is important to note that Xi Jinping and the candidates for the Standing Committee of the Politburo have all had experience dealing with the United States on a personal and professional level. The mere fact of getting past succession/election politics in both China and the United States is a significant plus for bilateral relations as it means that decisions can be made without domestic considerations playing a key role.

Finally, President Obama has appointed new people to the positions of Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and Treasury Secretary. On balance, the candidates to succeed in these posts have the experience and commitment to maintaining a successful and productive U.S.-China partnership.

Ralph E. Winnie, Jr. has worked extensively in China, advising individuals and companies regarding Chinese business practices and customs. He has been interviewed by CCTV and Phoenix Satellite Television and was appointed as a Business Development Representative for the province of Guangxi in Southern China, responsible for the promotion of business development, tax and trade between the province of Guangxi and the United States.

Ralph E. Winnie, Jr. with Ambassador Nirupma Rao of India

On Friday, October 25th, 2013, Ralph E. Winnie, Jr. Director of China Programs for the Eurasia Center and Vice President of Global Business Development for the Eurasian Business Coalition, was a featured speaker at the farewell reception for Ambassador Nirupma Rao, Ambassador of India to the United States. This event was hosted by the Indian-American communities of Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C. to honor the significant contributions that Ambassador Rao has made in promoting US-India relations.

Photos of Ralph Winnie Jr. with the Mongolian President

Photos of Ralph Winnie Jr. with the Mongolian Delegation

Video of Ralph Winnie, Jr. in Tashkent, Uzbekistan addressing the 2014 Global Conference on International Food Development, Security and Advanced Agricultural Technologies for the Uzbek Farming Cooperative

On Friday, June 6th, 2014, Ralph E. Winnie, Jr., Director of the China Program at the Eurasia Center and Vice President of Global Business Development of the Eurasian Business Coalition addresses the Global Conference on International Food Development, Security, and Advanced Agricultural Technologies for the Uzbek Farming Cooperative in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Mr. Winnie, Jr. discussed new and innovative agricultural technologies and the importance of intellectual property rights impacting the farming cooperatives in the Republic of Uzbekistan.

Warren, Azevedo, Rinella, Ersland, Winnie, Ward on Saturday's Takedown Radio!

From the mobile Brute Studios, Fight Now TV Presents Takedown Wrestling Radio. Takedown is proudly presented by Kemin Agricultural Products and Blue 04 Water!

 

Join Scott Casber and Brad Johnson this Saturday from 9 to 11 AM CST/ 10 AM to 12 Noon Eastern LIVE from Clear Channel's KXNO studios in Des Moines, Iowa.

 

Guests include: 

 

9:00 A.M.         Joe Warren- Baddest Man on the Planet, Bellator Champion, Pan American

                        Champ at 60 K

9:20 A.M.         Matt Azevedo- Drexel Dragons Head Coach

 

9:35 A.M.         Jim Rinella- 3^rd Generation Owner The Airliner Wrestling’s Home in Iowa City

 

9:50                 Joey Boyens - Max Muscle Sports Nutrition Update 

 

10:00 A.M         Tony Ersland- Assist Head Coach U of Nebraska

10:20 A.M.        Ralph Winnie- Washington and Wrestling Insider

 

10:40 A.M.        Kevin Ward- Arkansas’ Ouachita Baptist Head Coach

 

                        Tune In to Win a Weekend for 2 to Wildrose Casino and Resort

                                                                                                      

10:50                Amy Ruble- Wildrose Casino and Resort,  Emmetsburg, Iowa

                        

                                                                                

Join in the conversation LIVE 866-333-5966  515-204-5966 from 9 to 11 AM CST.  Listen to Takedown Wrestling on Radio, computer, Blackberry or  I Phone with the I Heart Radio App. KXNO.com, Takedownradio.com, I Heart Radio App

 

Resilite!  for 50 Years Resilite has been the official mat supplier to the NCAA.

Ralph Winnie moderated the forum on "The Role of China as a Partner for Economic and Political Stability in Asia and the World".

“The Role of China as a Partner for Economic and Political Stability in Asia and the World”
March 26, 2014
UPF Office of Peace and Security Affairs — Washington, DC
The UPF Office of Peace and Security Affairs in Washington hosted a forum on “The Role of China as a Partner for Economic and Political Stability in Asia and the World,” on March 26, 2014. Moderated by Ralph E. Winnie, Jr., Director of the Eurasia Center’s China Program, Washington-based experts, friends of UPF, and Ambassadors for Peace dialogued about the current situation and made several important conclusions: (1) The need to impress upon larger educated public opinion and policymakers in countries around the world, the necessity for the U.S. and its allies of building relationships with the PRC based on partnerships for economic, financial and political stability of the international system of which China is an integral part. (2) The recognition that trust is the basis for any relationship. Cooperative trust-building activities on the regional and international levels are to be encouraged between the U.S. and China. The goal is to reach a win-win relationship for all parties, not a zero-sum game. (3) China is the world’s second largest economy. This reality cannot be ignored. The U.S. and its allies would be wise to pursue partnership with China. Confrontation must be avoided, not only for the sake of stability of the domestic economies of China, the U.S., and its allies, but also because the stability of the global economic and financial system depends on Chinese cooperation. The international system must be kept stable. (4) Ways must be found to work together making a case with China of the necessity not only on the part of the US and other countries but of China’s own responsibility in sustaining world peace and world prosperity by promoting mutual trust, good will and cooperation in the interest of all humanity.
-----------------
The forum attendees were welcomed by Dr. Antonio Betancourt, Director, Office of Peace and Security Affairs-Washington, DC. “In examining the role of China as a partner for economic and political stability in Asia and the world, we need to accept certain realities. China is the world’s second largest economy, and the United States is China’s second largest trading partner. China’s economy is embedded not only in the economy of the U.S. but also in the economies of most countries around the world. Consequently, the Chinese economy exerts a major influence on Asia’s regional and global stability in both geopolitical terms and regarding the international economic and financial system."

“The U.S. and its allies pursue partnership as well as competition with China. However, confrontation must be avoided at all costs, not only for the sake of stability of the domestic economies of China, the U.S., and its allies, but also because the stability of the global economic system depends on Chinese cooperation with the U.S. and its allies.

None of them can afford to destabilize the international system.”

Against such a backdrop, Dr. Betancourt asked how should the U.S. and its allies deal with China? Can they rely on China to be a partner for economic and political stability in the region and world? Can China be invited into a lasting partnership with a shared responsibility for stability in Asia and the world, linking its own interests with the larger interests of the world community, given that they have a huge stake in keeping the world stable and at peace, and since they are global partners in trade investments and economic development?

Ralph Winnie, the moderator, and Director of the Eurasia Center’s China Program opened the discussion by reflecting on his many years of experience in China and the importance of developing a personal and professional relationship based on trust and mutual respect. The China mindset is people-based and there is a high value placed on face-to-face contact.

Mr. Winnie also explained the challenge of dealing with the Chinese generation gap. The older citizens were brought up under communism and still have memories of war and deprivation. That older generation grew up under an oppressive government and its intrusion into all areas of life, particularly in the area of ownership. Under Communist rule, until the reforms of Deng Xiaoping (1904-97), all property was collectively owned by the people. That mindset has slowly changed. The young, educated Chinese have a different mindset. They are well-traveled, speak various languages, comfortable with technology, and want the fruits of their efforts. These white-collar citizens, mostly educated abroad, are the new middle class. Their numbers are staggering -- estimated at more than 300 million -- larger than the entire population of the United States.

Although the generations clash over social issues, the gap is slowly closing. Mr. Winnie shared about the high profile case of basketball star, Michael Jordan, who sued a Chinese company for illegally using his name on its products. This represents a test of their legal system’s regard for personal trademarks and protection of intellectual property. As a people-based culture rather than a law-based culture, Western investors are watching this case closely to see if the Chinese judiciary can be trusted to apply the law in a transparent modern fashion. The American Bar Association (ABA) has been very effective in going over to China and helping to educate and train Chinese judiciary about these issues and intellectual property.

William Reed, President of Black Press International, raised the issue of China’s footprint in Africa. China is presently involved in 35 African countries, specifically in hydropower and railroads. “China has supported revolutionary movements in various countries since the 1960s,” according to Mr. Winnie. “They do some programs similar to the Israelis and host cultural programs where the Chinese would go over there and train locals and then they would bring some of them back to China for their education.” Barack Obama’s half- brother lives near Hong Kong, he said, and is married to a Chinese woman and speaks fluent Chinese. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping was recently in Europe for the Nuclear Security Summit held in The Hague. While there, he met with the leader of France and signed a multi- billion industrial agreement on joint construction of civilian helicopters, purchase of Airbus planes, and construction in China of a nuclear waste reprocessing plant. This was the Chinese president’s first European tour. He also visited The Netherlands, Germany and Belgium.

Regarding China’s investments around the world, Dr. Betancourt said: “China targets countries big and small regardless of race. What they are looking for are markets. They’re looking for resources, minerals, cash shelter, and proven corporate structures to put their money and corporations in. When we talk about the globalization of the economy – China is right in the front more than many other countries.” He pointed out that in the past few years, Chinese companies have poured billions in the UK.

Almost half of all the money invested overseas by China in recent years has been into the energy and power sector. China’s demand for energy is expected to triple by 2030 so countries with abundant natural resources will continue to attract the most money from China. Dr. Betancourt, who was born in Colombia, spoke about Chinese investments in Latin America and the Caribbean. Trade is more than $300 billion a year. In 2009, China overtook the U.S. as Brazil’s second largest trading partner. In Colombia, trade between the two countries has increased dramatically over the last decade. Last year China surpassed Venezuela to become Colombia’s second biggest trading partner.

Ambassador Mungra of Suriname to the US expressed the opinion that Russia like China should also be seen with the potential to destabilize the international system. He said that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent military actions in Ukraine has destabilized that whole region. The Ambassador asked: “What caused the fall of communism in 1989? It was one simple thing. All human beings are born free. We want free choice. You can put everybody in a prison but you can’t imprison the mind. Ultimately, the Communist system will change. The people will demand reform. The system lacks
sustainability.” China, he said, is being put outside of the two most important major trading blocs being established in the world. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Since China is not in these two major free-trade associations, China is moving towards France to see if that could be a backdoor to the markets.

John Kukor, former Air Force intelligence officer based in Japan, expressed concern over recent announcements that the U.S. plans to relinquish federal control over the administration of the Internet, and the possible security issues this represents.

Ambassador Mungra said the solution to the current world state of political and military tensions is “collaboration and cooperation between people, groups, and nations. As long as we talk with each other, dialogue and cooperate, we can solve these problems.”

The UPF believes, according to Dr. Betancourt: “The Chinese have to learn from America and from Europe how to live according to the rules of international engagement, and if they don’t play by the rules, then there will be consequences.” China is a nation of 1.4 billion and has a middle class of about 300 million. In fifteen years, the Chinese middle class is projected to reach 800 million.
 

It is critical that: “China be respected. It is important to look at China not as a junior in foreign policy. We cannot treat Russia or China or Brazil or Mexico and countries that have a certain bulk of power as juniors in foreign policy as the U.S. used to do or has been accustomed to doing. These nations have to be coached gently to show that it is in their interest to play according to international rules.”

Mr. Winnie said: “China must continue to take people out of poverty. There are large numbers of educated young people who were schooled abroad. When they come back home, their desire is to be an entrepreneur. The government figured out early on a way to keep these people happy. The way to keep them in the system is to keep them content with the government, so they offer them an entree into a circle and a network of influence where they can develop contacts to make money. This circle of influence is the Chinese Communist Party. In this way, the Communist Party found a way to multiply itself with a new generation of young entrepreneurs.

Dr. Betancourt mentioned about problems within the system in America. “The value system needs to be reinvented because trust in the political and financial system has been eroded. Without trust nothing functions properly. Behind any transaction there is a value system.” Popular opinion says the 1.4 million bankruptcies declared five years ago is the fault of the 1 percent, the super rich, who own and control America. The UPF position, he said, is that the values that under gird our way of life should be identified as everlasting. “Universal values will give backbone to the processes – political, economic, military, not temporary changing principles.”

Amb. Mungra recounted the story of former prime minister Lee Kuan Yew, known as the “Father of Singapore.” He made sure that the government used good management techniques. Mr. Lee said: “If you believe that men should be free, then, they should have the right of free association, of free speech, of free PRESS.” The ambassador emphasized the need for collaboration particularly in the face of a common enemy.

Regarding the issue of corruption in China, according to Mr. Winnie, they understand that “if they are perceived as a country where corruption takes place,” then foreign business will stay away. He told the story of a government official who was caught taking a bribe, but because he admitted to the infraction, instead of getting a prison sentence, or worse, he was demoted in terms of social status and prestige within the community. Chinese President Xi Jinping has declared fighting corruption and graft a priority for his administration.

Barbara Moseley-Marks, a Virginia Realtor, and coordinator for the Virginia Parents’ Day Alliance (VAPDA), focused on the moral ramifications of trust. “To solve all these different problems,” she said, “the element of trust is crucial regardless of which economic system is used.” She described it as the basis for any relationship, whether at the individual, national, and even world levels. “Trust,” she said, “means I can rely 100% on something. For example, I trust my husband, my family, and my church. God is my trust.” 

Mr. Winnie, who serves as Executive Director of the National Wrestling Coaches Association, gave an example how nations can come together. When wrestling was dropped from the Summer Olympic Games, an unlikely alliance of nations came together -- USA, Cuba, Russia, China, and Iran -- to seek its reinstatement. Like the historic 1971 “ping-pong diplomacy” between China and the U.S., the sport of wrestling is a form of soft diplomacy that builds friendships and trust. It can be compared to what Michelle Obama accomplished in her recent trip to China and visit with her counterpart, Chinese First Lady Peng Liyuan.

Dr. Betancourt, quoted UPF Founder, Rev. Moon, on the subject of trust. Humans have what Rev. Moon calls “fallen nature,” which is the sinful nature that came about due to the Fall of Man as told in the Bible, as opposed to “original nature,” which is humankind’s nature prior to the Fall. It is the difference between self-centeredness vs. unselfishness. He believes that with time and God’s providence, it is the destiny for all individuals and nations to live altruistically and be what the Bible says, “In the image and likeness of the Creator.”

Amb. Mungra summarized the primary issue of the forum: “The major challenge, issue or problem in today’s world is the lack of trust.”

Forum participants agreed that trust building measures for cooperation and dialogue are needed in diplomacy. In a previous generation, U.S. foreign policy was based on the balance between diplomacy and power, but in today’s world, diplomacy has been subordinated to power.

In Suriname, teachers are required to teach children to respect cultural diversity and tolerance for others who may be different. Through international exchanges and technology, cultures can come closer. “Ignorance and fear are the great enemies,” the Ambassador said.

China’s actions near the South China Sea are a cause for concern, but out of this crisis, new unlikely alliances and opportunities are emerging. Vietnam along with the Philippines wants the U.S. to come in and help resolve the situation. The Chinese are starting to get the message. We should not try to isolate or ignore them; on the contrary, the West needs China particularly to keep the government of North Korea in line. They have to be pushed gently by the international community to live according to international rules, the United Nations Charter, which protects not just the rights of individuals but the rights of nations. It is important that the U.S. and our allies sit down with China on an equal footing even if it doesn't like Chinese behavior, and likewise with Russia and even North Korea. There is a greater purpose at work here. 

Minister Gupta, a former Government official from India to Afghanistan reminded the

attendees that, according to Hinduism, “we should unite together and protect ourselves. There should be no hatred among ourselves. We are one family under God. We make big peace with love and affection. That is the message of UPF. If we want to win the heart of China we must give them peace. Peace comes from a heart, mind, and soul. It cannot be imposed upon anybody. There is a Hindu prayer for peace: Oh God, lead us from the unreal to the Real. Oh God, lead us from darkness to light. Oh God, lead us from death to immortality. Shanti, Shanti, Shanti unto all.”

Rev. Moon said: “My peace plan starts from the level of the individual. First we must find peace with God, then peace with our fellowman, and finally we can secure world peace.” 

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“The Role of China as a Partner for Economic and Political Stability in Asia and the World”

Host: Dr. Antonio Betancourt - Director, UPF Office of Peace and Security Affairs, Washington, DC
Moderator: Ralph Winnie Jr., Director of Global Business Development and the Eurasian Business Coalition’s China Program

Attendees:

Hari Bindal - President, American Society of Engineers of Indian Origin
Dr. Ray Brogan - Adjunct Psychology Professor, Kaplan University
Jan Duplain - Embassy Liaison, Office for Trade Promotion, Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center
Prof. Diane Falk - Research writer and editor
Min. Amar Nath Gupta – Former Government official from India to Afghanistan; and Founder, Rajdhani Mandir Hindu Temple
Ms. Sunita Gupta - Capitol Hill Hindu Temple
John Kukor – Former U.S. Air Force Intelligence Officer
Barbara Mosely-Marks - Founder/Coordinator, Virginia Parent’s Day Alliance
H.E. Subhas Chandra Mungra - Ambassador, Embassy of Suriname
William Reed - President, Black Press International
Dr. Mark P. Barry - Advisor, UPF Office of Peace and Security Affairs (Observer) Dr. William Selig - Deputy Director, UPF Office of Peace and Security Affairs, Washington, DC 

Dennis Rodman serenades ‘friend for life’ Kim Jong-un; apologizes for obscenity-laced interview

2014-01-10

By Martin Sieff

ormer U.S. basketball superstar Dennis Rodman not only led other NBA players in a special exhibition game in North Korea on Jan. 8, to celebrate the birthday of his “friend for life” Kim Jong-un, he also sang happy birthday to the repressive dictator.

Kim is believed to have turned 31 and is celebrating the event as reports circulate that his aunt Kim Kyong-hui, 68, has committed suicide or died of a heart attack following the execution last month of her husband Jang Sung-taek on the young leader’s orders.

Long notorious for his cross-dressing and other outrageous antics, Rodman made clear he cared nothing for such reports or for Kim Jong-un’s well-documented record of mass executions, and enslavement of scores of thousands of his own citizens ingulag-style concentration camps.

Rodman, 52, who played on five National Basketball Association championship teams in the 1990s, became loudly abusive when interviewed on CNN on Jan. 7 about his fourth visit within a year to reclusive North Korea, the most closed society on the planet.

Interviewed from Pyongyang, he defended Kim Jong-un, telling the network’s Chris Cuomo, “I love my friend. This is my friend.”

In the past, Rodman had boasted that he would raise the issue of Kenneth Bae, a Korean-American and U.S. citizen who has been jailed in North Korea.

Rodman belligerent during interview

Rodman lost his temper with Cuomo and became defensive and abusive when asked if he would raise Bae’s plight during his visit.

“Kenneth Bae did one thing. ... If you understand what Kenneth Bae did. Do you understand what he did in this country? No, no, no, you tell me, you tell me. Why is he held captive here in this country, why? ... I would love to speak on this,” he claimed in increasingly confused comments.

Bae, a father of three, was arrested in November 2012 and sentenced last May to 15 years of hard labor in North Korea on charges of “hostile acts” and accusations that he tried to topple the government.

Bae’s sister, Terry Chung, later told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that the family was “shocked and just outraged” by Rodman’s comments.

Referring to the team of retired basketball players he had recruited to play in the Pyongyang game, Rodman said, “You know, you’ve got 10 guys here, 10 guys here, they’ve left their families, they’ve left their damn families, to help this country, as in a sports venture. That’s 10 guys, all these guys here, do anyone understand that? Christmas, New Year’s. ... “I don’t give a rat’s ass what the hell you think. I’m saying to you, look at these guys here, look at them ... they dared to do one thing, they came here.”

Before departing from Beijing on the last leg of his flight, Rodman informed reporters at the airport, while holding a bottle of Carlsberg beer, that he would not discuss North Korea’s appalling human rights record with his host. Instead, he defended Kim Jong-un as a “good guy” and a “friend,” South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported on Jan. 8.

Two days after the CNN interview, Rodman released a statement apologizing to Bae’s family and Cuomo as well as Rodman’s teammates and management for the comments he made in the interview, blaming alcohol and stress.

“I want to apologize. … I take full responsibility for my actions. It had been a very stressful day. Some of my teammates were leaving because of pressure from their families and business associates. My dreams of basketball diplomacy was quickly falling apart. I had been drinking. It’s not an excuse but by the time the interview happened I was upset. I was overwhelmed. It’s not an excuse, it’s just the truth,” he said in the statement.

Rodman, widely regarded as a colorful has-been in his native United States, is increasing the frequency of his visits to Kim. The latest trip follows one in December to train North Korean basketball players.

“People always say that North Korea is like a really communist country, that people are not allowed to go there. I just know the fact that, you know, to me he’s a nice guy, to me. Nice guy, you know. Whatever he does political-wise, that’s not my job,” theChosun Ilbo quoted him as saying.

Kim’s actions departure from father’s rule

Kim has been a spectacular and highly unpredictable departure from the carefully shielded and orchestrated formal reverence required by his father Kim Jong-il and grandfather Kim Il-sung during the 66 years they ruled North Korea from September 1945 to December 2011. But even by his standards of alternating jovial extroversion and bonhomie with ferocious public executions, his public presentation of his friendship with Rodman has been unprecedented, and some experts believe it may be damaging his public standing.

“The behavior of young North Korean leader has already raised many eyebrows. It suffices to mention his marriage to Ri Sol-ju, a girl with a bohemian past, or his strange affection for Dennis Rodman, an eccentric athlete who did not bother to take off his cap in front of the Leader,” Tatiana Gabroussenko, professor of North Korean studies at Korea University, pointed out in an article in Asia Times Online in December.

Ralph Winnie, vice president of the Eurasian Business Coalition, told the Asia Pacific Defense Forum [APDF] that Kim appeared to have a rational motive in part for his public hosting and adulation of Rodman.

“He has used Rodman to try and showcase the new tourism and ski resorts he has built. Apparently he believes North Korea can generate needed hard currency from attracting foreign visitors to these outlets though the amount of revenue he would raise appears to be minimal at best,” Winnie said. “But there seems no doubt that his affection for Rodman and pleasure in his company is genuine.”

Media reported Rodman went skiing in North Korea the day after the exhibition game. One former NBA player who participated in the exhibition, Charles Smith, left North Korea after blaming Rodman for tainting efforts by the others to bring diplomacy to the country.

Rodman paid his first visit to North Korea last February when Kim was on the receiving end of unprecedented international isolation after carrying out the country’s third underground nuclear test in defiance of United Nations Security Council Resolutions.

During that visit, Rodman, began what CNN described as “an unlikely friendship” with Kim when the athlete led a group of Harlem Globetrotters for an exhibition basketball game attended by Kim.

The U.S. government has distanced itself from Rodman’s visit. CNN reported that White House spokesman Jay Carney described Rodman as taking a private trip. The Obama administration has called for Bae’s release in the past “and our views about Kenneth Bae have not changed,” Carney said.

After Kim ordered his uncle, veteran statesman Jang Sung-taek, executed, international criticism caused Paddy Power, the online betting company that had backed Rodman’s exhibition trip, to pull out of the project.

Pyongyang seeks continued economic relations with Beijing

2014-01-17

Analysis by Martin Sieff

South Korea analysts say North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un plans to maintain cordial economic ties with China even after publicly executing China’s main ally and friend in Pyongyang for 30 years, his uncle Jang Sung-taek.

Jang was shown on national television being humiliated and hauled out of a ruling Politburo Dec. 12 meeting before beingexecuted.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service says Kim is confident he has come up with a strategy that will ensure China continues its support of his country.

“North Korea is cozying up to China after executing former eminence grise [Jang], who had close ties with Beijing,” South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported. The newspaper often breaks stories from the South Korea’s intelligence community.

The newspaper said the Chinese media were continuing to report favorably on continued relations with North Korea. Chinese newspapers covered North Korean participation in an exhibition in China’s Hubei Province, Chosun Ilbo reported. “The exhibition features traditional crafts, liquor, stamps, paintings and other products from China, North Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam,” the newspaper said.

Asian newspapers also have reported that Kim recognized the importance of reassuring China about continued economic relations after the execution of his uncle. The Hong Kong weekly newspaper Yazhou Zhoukan reported that Pyongyang sought Beijing’s understanding after Jang’s execution and asked to discuss a visit by Kim. So far, the government of President Xi Jinping has held Kim at arm’s length.

Vice Marshal Choe Ryong-hae, who traveled to China in May, is the highest-ranking North Korean envoy to visit China in the two years Kim has held power.

The Yazhou Zhoukan report confirmed that the choice of Choe as “point” envoy to Beijing was meant to inform the Chinese that Choe would replace Jang as the key liaison between the countries. But the paper said Chinese leaders did not draw this conclusion from Choe’s visit at the time.

In the short term, Kim has succeeded in persuading China to continue business-as-usual relations. South Korean newspapers report that China continues to crack down on North Korean defectors attempting to escape their country across its northern border to Chinese Manchuria across the Yalu River, just as Pyongyang wants.

Kim takes control

Kim’s behavior following Jang’s execution indicated that the leader was determined to maintain his country’s crucial relationship with China, but also that he had feared Jang’s long control of Pyongyang’s bilateral ties gave him too much power, Ralph Winnie, chief of the China program at the Eurasian Business Coalition, told Asia Pacific Defense Forum [APDF].

“It is all about control,” Winnie said. “Jang had enjoyed full control of the relationship with China for decades. Kim Jong-il [Kim Jong-un’s father and predecessor, who died in December 2011] was comfortable with this arrangement, but Kim Jong-un was not. He was determined to rule on his own terms. Taking control of the China relationship into his own hands will send that message to the Chinese. It sends the same message to his own people.”

However, taking control of the relationship does not mean that Kim wants to terminate it or endanger it, Winnie said.

“Kim Jong-un certainly wants to retain the support of the Chinese leadership,” he told APDF. “But he also is determined to show them who really runs the show in North Korea. And he wants to increase his leverage with the Chinese.”

“Removing the people they have always relied upon to implement cooperation and keep track of internal developments in the North will certainly increase the uncertainty of the Chinese government in its dealings with Pyongyang,” Winnie said.

At China’s foreign ministry briefing on Dec. 13, authorities described the execution of Jang as purely internal affairs for Pyongyang. Foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei reiterated the standard line that as a good neighbor, China only wants to have stability in North Korea and see its people living in happiness.

Hong also expressed the standard sentiment that bilateral economic relations remained mutually beneficial and that China looked forward to expanding them.

Economic projects with China could be in jeopardy

Relations with China could be endangered if Kim expands his purge to topple or execute hundreds of officials who played key roles in projects with China that Jang oversaw as part of his economic empire. The Chosun Ilbo reported this could happen.

“The sharply worded article in North Korea’s state media that accused him [Jang] of treason also said he personally profited from deals with outside countries in the Rajin-Sonbong special economic zone. It also accused him of being bribed by enemies,” the article said.

Daniel Pinkston, deputy director for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, told the Chosun Ilbo there is a real danger that Jang’s execution could hurt the North Korean economy by disrupting many of the vital cooperation projects with China.

“The next person to come in to run these operations that Jang had been running, I think will be under orders to renegotiate the contracts and renegotiate the prices, but of course the Chinese businessmen on the other side will want to fulfill the contracts they’ve already signed, so this will damage the poor reputation that North Korea already has, and it will have a negative impact on their ability to conduct international business,” he told the newspaper.

“China has long provided an economic aid to North Korea as well as much of the country’s food aid. Exports from China to North Korea totaled $590 million last year,” the Chosun Ilbo said.

China is ‘embarrassed and disgusted’

Veteran Asian affairs analyst Pepe Escobar agreed with Winnie’s assessment that Kim might well try and use the purge of his uncle to extort more favorable treatment and terms of cooperation from China.

“Jang was close to Beijing – and he wanted a lot of Chinese investment,” Escobar wrote in Asia Times Online. “No one knows how this purge will affect business. Those subscribing to the view of North Korea as a Mob operation will see the purge as a tactic to raise the price for North Korean ‘cooperation’ with the Chinese.”

“That’s not so far-fetched. Pyongyang does depend on China, but it will never allow itself to become a mere puppet,” he said.