Summary of Remarks of Ralph Winnie, Jr. at DACOR-August 2017

Mr. Ralph Winnie and Mr. William Yale
The State of U.S.-China Relations
Wednesday, August 2nd, 2017
Author: William Mallard
(Audio + Talk)



Ralph Winnie is a partner of Henson, Pang and Winnie, a premier international law firm and consulting group with offices in Washington, D.C. in the United States and Shanghai in China. He also serves as Director of the China Program for the Eurasia Center and its Eurasian Business Coalition, an organization dedicated to promoting and preserving the ideas of affordable housing, economic cooperation, environmental sustainable development and the promotion of business development, tax and trade between the United States and the fifty-nine nations comprising Eurasia. Mr. Winnie has extensive experience in international affairs, international business development and trade, and domestic and international tax policies. Mr. Winnie has held many prominent positions including most recently: Director of the China Program for the Eurasia Center; Vice-President of Global Business Development for the Eurasian Business Coalition; and countless board positions for international organizations. William Yale is an Adjunct Fellow at the American Security Project and a Research Associate at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute (FPI). He has previously worked at the U.S. Naval War College and the State Department.
Mr. Winnie and Mr. Yale came to the DACOR Bacon House to hold an Q&A session concerning the subject of the general state of U.S.-Chinese relations and included issues such as the South China Sea, North Korea, and the Trump administration. Mr. Yale’s first question was on Mr. Winnie’s views concerning the Trump administration’s impact on the U.S.-China relationship. Mr. Winnie responded stating that President Trump’s views of China have been characterized by strong language but that his focus has been on developing bilateral relationships and negotiations, as opposed to the strong focus on multilateral deals and relationships from previous administrations. Hence the U.S.’ removal of itself from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which President Trump viewed as detrimental to the U.S. Despite the consistent amount of goodwill still in Asia towards the U.S., Mr. Winnie stated that the Trump administration’s words and actions could erode said goodwill. Thus, while initial U.S.-China relations haven’t deteriorated overmuch, China is having to reexamine its relationship strategy and is therefore looking to expand its relationships and alliances with other entities such as the EU.
Mr. Yale then switched subjects and asked whether there were any levers through which the U.S. and China could work together towards a solution concerning North Korea. Mr. Winnie responded by stating that some possible solutions for the U.S. are that it could penalize the Chinese banks that are connected to various Chinese front companies that smuggle goods to North Korea. As well, the U.S. has several issues through which it can influence China such as Taiwan, the islands in the South China Sea, and issues concerning the Chinese-Indian border. The discussion then examined ways in which the U.S. can respond to China’s human rights record. Mr. Winnie then explained that the U.S., while it should be confident in its projection of its soft power abroad and should work to promote democracy and freedom within China, must maintain a sense of wariness and caution, since the Chinese don’t want to bow to foreign interference in their domestic affairs.
The discussion then changed gears and focused on the South China Sea. Mr. Winnie reviewed the U.S.’ interests in the South China Sea and emphasized differing scenarios based upon the U.S.’ strategy in the
region. As an illustration, if the U.S. wishes to maintain its status as the global hegemon, it must be committed to maintaining large numbers of military forces in the region to dissuade China’s military advances and reassure America’s regional allies. If not, Mr. Winnie stated that the U.S. should commit to no more than ensuring access to free seas for maritime trade and should sit back and let China continue to develop and rise in power. Mr. Winnie did state further that the U.S. had too many interests in the region to affect a pullback and could not afford to resign its commission as the global hegemon, which would necessitate increased military cooperation with its regional allies to hedge against a swiftly rising China.
Mr. Yale followed up with a question concerning the new U.S. ambassador to China and his thoughts on the perceived effectiveness of the new diplomat, to which Mr. Winnie responded by stating that the ambassador was a good pick with extensive knowledge and experience of Chinese relations and culture. Mr. Winnie went further, stating that this new ambassador has a long-standing commitment to the principles of free trade and will be able to foster long-term relationships with the Chinese government. As well, Mr. Winnie believes that the new Secretary of State will be able to use his experience leading a large, multinational corporation to forge strong ties with the Chinese leadership. Finally, Mr. Yale asked Mr. Winnie about his opinions concerning China’s upcoming Party Congress in the Fall, to which Mr. Winnie replied that China’s top leader, Xi Jingping, is the most powerful and influential leader that China has seen in decades and will most likely continue to solidify his power when the Chinese government next convenes.
Mr. Winnie and Mr. Yale then concluded the initial portion of their discussion by taking questions from the audience. One question concerned Mr. Winnie’s perspective on the perceived ties between President Putin and Xi Jingping, to which he replied that, while the two leaders both respect each other and have forged closer ties, the Russian and Chinese peoples don’t hold each other in very high esteem, making their partnership one built on shaky foundations. As well, Mr. Winnie spoke on China’s use of its soft power, particularly through its cultivation of the One Belt, One Road initiative. He sated his belief that the global banking system needs to be liberalized and that the U.S. must continue to cultivate relationships with other Asian states. Mr. Winnie concluded the discussion with a brief set of remarks concerning President Trump’s foreign policy. He stated that Mr. Trump approaches his foreign-policy decision-making from the perspective of a business-man focused on bilateral business deals. Thus, the expectations of Mr. trump to become a diplomat are largely unfounded as he will continue to conduct deals on a case-by-case basis like the businessman that he in fact is.