Warren, Azevedo, Rinella, Ersland, Winnie, Ward on Saturday's Takedown Radio!

From the mobile Brute Studios, Fight Now TV Presents Takedown Wrestling Radio. Takedown is proudly presented by Kemin Agricultural Products and Blue 04 Water!

 

Join Scott Casber and Brad Johnson this Saturday from 9 to 11 AM CST/ 10 AM to 12 Noon Eastern LIVE from Clear Channel's KXNO studios in Des Moines, Iowa.

 

Guests include: 

 

9:00 A.M.         Joe Warren- Baddest Man on the Planet, Bellator Champion, Pan American

                        Champ at 60 K

9:20 A.M.         Matt Azevedo- Drexel Dragons Head Coach

 

9:35 A.M.         Jim Rinella- 3^rd Generation Owner The Airliner Wrestling’s Home in Iowa City

 

9:50                 Joey Boyens - Max Muscle Sports Nutrition Update 

 

10:00 A.M         Tony Ersland- Assist Head Coach U of Nebraska

10:20 A.M.        Ralph Winnie- Washington and Wrestling Insider

 

10:40 A.M.        Kevin Ward- Arkansas’ Ouachita Baptist Head Coach

 

                        Tune In to Win a Weekend for 2 to Wildrose Casino and Resort

                                                                                                      

10:50                Amy Ruble- Wildrose Casino and Resort,  Emmetsburg, Iowa

                        

                                                                                

Join in the conversation LIVE 866-333-5966  515-204-5966 from 9 to 11 AM CST.  Listen to Takedown Wrestling on Radio, computer, Blackberry or  I Phone with the I Heart Radio App. KXNO.com, Takedownradio.com, I Heart Radio App

 

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Ralph Winnie moderated the forum on "The Role of China as a Partner for Economic and Political Stability in Asia and the World".

“The Role of China as a Partner for Economic and Political Stability in Asia and the World”
March 26, 2014
UPF Office of Peace and Security Affairs — Washington, DC
The UPF Office of Peace and Security Affairs in Washington hosted a forum on “The Role of China as a Partner for Economic and Political Stability in Asia and the World,” on March 26, 2014. Moderated by Ralph E. Winnie, Jr., Director of the Eurasia Center’s China Program, Washington-based experts, friends of UPF, and Ambassadors for Peace dialogued about the current situation and made several important conclusions: (1) The need to impress upon larger educated public opinion and policymakers in countries around the world, the necessity for the U.S. and its allies of building relationships with the PRC based on partnerships for economic, financial and political stability of the international system of which China is an integral part. (2) The recognition that trust is the basis for any relationship. Cooperative trust-building activities on the regional and international levels are to be encouraged between the U.S. and China. The goal is to reach a win-win relationship for all parties, not a zero-sum game. (3) China is the world’s second largest economy. This reality cannot be ignored. The U.S. and its allies would be wise to pursue partnership with China. Confrontation must be avoided, not only for the sake of stability of the domestic economies of China, the U.S., and its allies, but also because the stability of the global economic and financial system depends on Chinese cooperation. The international system must be kept stable. (4) Ways must be found to work together making a case with China of the necessity not only on the part of the US and other countries but of China’s own responsibility in sustaining world peace and world prosperity by promoting mutual trust, good will and cooperation in the interest of all humanity.
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The forum attendees were welcomed by Dr. Antonio Betancourt, Director, Office of Peace and Security Affairs-Washington, DC. “In examining the role of China as a partner for economic and political stability in Asia and the world, we need to accept certain realities. China is the world’s second largest economy, and the United States is China’s second largest trading partner. China’s economy is embedded not only in the economy of the U.S. but also in the economies of most countries around the world. Consequently, the Chinese economy exerts a major influence on Asia’s regional and global stability in both geopolitical terms and regarding the international economic and financial system."

“The U.S. and its allies pursue partnership as well as competition with China. However, confrontation must be avoided at all costs, not only for the sake of stability of the domestic economies of China, the U.S., and its allies, but also because the stability of the global economic system depends on Chinese cooperation with the U.S. and its allies.

None of them can afford to destabilize the international system.”

Against such a backdrop, Dr. Betancourt asked how should the U.S. and its allies deal with China? Can they rely on China to be a partner for economic and political stability in the region and world? Can China be invited into a lasting partnership with a shared responsibility for stability in Asia and the world, linking its own interests with the larger interests of the world community, given that they have a huge stake in keeping the world stable and at peace, and since they are global partners in trade investments and economic development?

Ralph Winnie, the moderator, and Director of the Eurasia Center’s China Program opened the discussion by reflecting on his many years of experience in China and the importance of developing a personal and professional relationship based on trust and mutual respect. The China mindset is people-based and there is a high value placed on face-to-face contact.

Mr. Winnie also explained the challenge of dealing with the Chinese generation gap. The older citizens were brought up under communism and still have memories of war and deprivation. That older generation grew up under an oppressive government and its intrusion into all areas of life, particularly in the area of ownership. Under Communist rule, until the reforms of Deng Xiaoping (1904-97), all property was collectively owned by the people. That mindset has slowly changed. The young, educated Chinese have a different mindset. They are well-traveled, speak various languages, comfortable with technology, and want the fruits of their efforts. These white-collar citizens, mostly educated abroad, are the new middle class. Their numbers are staggering -- estimated at more than 300 million -- larger than the entire population of the United States.

Although the generations clash over social issues, the gap is slowly closing. Mr. Winnie shared about the high profile case of basketball star, Michael Jordan, who sued a Chinese company for illegally using his name on its products. This represents a test of their legal system’s regard for personal trademarks and protection of intellectual property. As a people-based culture rather than a law-based culture, Western investors are watching this case closely to see if the Chinese judiciary can be trusted to apply the law in a transparent modern fashion. The American Bar Association (ABA) has been very effective in going over to China and helping to educate and train Chinese judiciary about these issues and intellectual property.

William Reed, President of Black Press International, raised the issue of China’s footprint in Africa. China is presently involved in 35 African countries, specifically in hydropower and railroads. “China has supported revolutionary movements in various countries since the 1960s,” according to Mr. Winnie. “They do some programs similar to the Israelis and host cultural programs where the Chinese would go over there and train locals and then they would bring some of them back to China for their education.” Barack Obama’s half- brother lives near Hong Kong, he said, and is married to a Chinese woman and speaks fluent Chinese. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping was recently in Europe for the Nuclear Security Summit held in The Hague. While there, he met with the leader of France and signed a multi- billion industrial agreement on joint construction of civilian helicopters, purchase of Airbus planes, and construction in China of a nuclear waste reprocessing plant. This was the Chinese president’s first European tour. He also visited The Netherlands, Germany and Belgium.

Regarding China’s investments around the world, Dr. Betancourt said: “China targets countries big and small regardless of race. What they are looking for are markets. They’re looking for resources, minerals, cash shelter, and proven corporate structures to put their money and corporations in. When we talk about the globalization of the economy – China is right in the front more than many other countries.” He pointed out that in the past few years, Chinese companies have poured billions in the UK.

Almost half of all the money invested overseas by China in recent years has been into the energy and power sector. China’s demand for energy is expected to triple by 2030 so countries with abundant natural resources will continue to attract the most money from China. Dr. Betancourt, who was born in Colombia, spoke about Chinese investments in Latin America and the Caribbean. Trade is more than $300 billion a year. In 2009, China overtook the U.S. as Brazil’s second largest trading partner. In Colombia, trade between the two countries has increased dramatically over the last decade. Last year China surpassed Venezuela to become Colombia’s second biggest trading partner.

Ambassador Mungra of Suriname to the US expressed the opinion that Russia like China should also be seen with the potential to destabilize the international system. He said that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent military actions in Ukraine has destabilized that whole region. The Ambassador asked: “What caused the fall of communism in 1989? It was one simple thing. All human beings are born free. We want free choice. You can put everybody in a prison but you can’t imprison the mind. Ultimately, the Communist system will change. The people will demand reform. The system lacks
sustainability.” China, he said, is being put outside of the two most important major trading blocs being established in the world. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Since China is not in these two major free-trade associations, China is moving towards France to see if that could be a backdoor to the markets.

John Kukor, former Air Force intelligence officer based in Japan, expressed concern over recent announcements that the U.S. plans to relinquish federal control over the administration of the Internet, and the possible security issues this represents.

Ambassador Mungra said the solution to the current world state of political and military tensions is “collaboration and cooperation between people, groups, and nations. As long as we talk with each other, dialogue and cooperate, we can solve these problems.”

The UPF believes, according to Dr. Betancourt: “The Chinese have to learn from America and from Europe how to live according to the rules of international engagement, and if they don’t play by the rules, then there will be consequences.” China is a nation of 1.4 billion and has a middle class of about 300 million. In fifteen years, the Chinese middle class is projected to reach 800 million.
 

It is critical that: “China be respected. It is important to look at China not as a junior in foreign policy. We cannot treat Russia or China or Brazil or Mexico and countries that have a certain bulk of power as juniors in foreign policy as the U.S. used to do or has been accustomed to doing. These nations have to be coached gently to show that it is in their interest to play according to international rules.”

Mr. Winnie said: “China must continue to take people out of poverty. There are large numbers of educated young people who were schooled abroad. When they come back home, their desire is to be an entrepreneur. The government figured out early on a way to keep these people happy. The way to keep them in the system is to keep them content with the government, so they offer them an entree into a circle and a network of influence where they can develop contacts to make money. This circle of influence is the Chinese Communist Party. In this way, the Communist Party found a way to multiply itself with a new generation of young entrepreneurs.

Dr. Betancourt mentioned about problems within the system in America. “The value system needs to be reinvented because trust in the political and financial system has been eroded. Without trust nothing functions properly. Behind any transaction there is a value system.” Popular opinion says the 1.4 million bankruptcies declared five years ago is the fault of the 1 percent, the super rich, who own and control America. The UPF position, he said, is that the values that under gird our way of life should be identified as everlasting. “Universal values will give backbone to the processes – political, economic, military, not temporary changing principles.”

Amb. Mungra recounted the story of former prime minister Lee Kuan Yew, known as the “Father of Singapore.” He made sure that the government used good management techniques. Mr. Lee said: “If you believe that men should be free, then, they should have the right of free association, of free speech, of free PRESS.” The ambassador emphasized the need for collaboration particularly in the face of a common enemy.

Regarding the issue of corruption in China, according to Mr. Winnie, they understand that “if they are perceived as a country where corruption takes place,” then foreign business will stay away. He told the story of a government official who was caught taking a bribe, but because he admitted to the infraction, instead of getting a prison sentence, or worse, he was demoted in terms of social status and prestige within the community. Chinese President Xi Jinping has declared fighting corruption and graft a priority for his administration.

Barbara Moseley-Marks, a Virginia Realtor, and coordinator for the Virginia Parents’ Day Alliance (VAPDA), focused on the moral ramifications of trust. “To solve all these different problems,” she said, “the element of trust is crucial regardless of which economic system is used.” She described it as the basis for any relationship, whether at the individual, national, and even world levels. “Trust,” she said, “means I can rely 100% on something. For example, I trust my husband, my family, and my church. God is my trust.” 

Mr. Winnie, who serves as Executive Director of the National Wrestling Coaches Association, gave an example how nations can come together. When wrestling was dropped from the Summer Olympic Games, an unlikely alliance of nations came together -- USA, Cuba, Russia, China, and Iran -- to seek its reinstatement. Like the historic 1971 “ping-pong diplomacy” between China and the U.S., the sport of wrestling is a form of soft diplomacy that builds friendships and trust. It can be compared to what Michelle Obama accomplished in her recent trip to China and visit with her counterpart, Chinese First Lady Peng Liyuan.

Dr. Betancourt, quoted UPF Founder, Rev. Moon, on the subject of trust. Humans have what Rev. Moon calls “fallen nature,” which is the sinful nature that came about due to the Fall of Man as told in the Bible, as opposed to “original nature,” which is humankind’s nature prior to the Fall. It is the difference between self-centeredness vs. unselfishness. He believes that with time and God’s providence, it is the destiny for all individuals and nations to live altruistically and be what the Bible says, “In the image and likeness of the Creator.”

Amb. Mungra summarized the primary issue of the forum: “The major challenge, issue or problem in today’s world is the lack of trust.”

Forum participants agreed that trust building measures for cooperation and dialogue are needed in diplomacy. In a previous generation, U.S. foreign policy was based on the balance between diplomacy and power, but in today’s world, diplomacy has been subordinated to power.

In Suriname, teachers are required to teach children to respect cultural diversity and tolerance for others who may be different. Through international exchanges and technology, cultures can come closer. “Ignorance and fear are the great enemies,” the Ambassador said.

China’s actions near the South China Sea are a cause for concern, but out of this crisis, new unlikely alliances and opportunities are emerging. Vietnam along with the Philippines wants the U.S. to come in and help resolve the situation. The Chinese are starting to get the message. We should not try to isolate or ignore them; on the contrary, the West needs China particularly to keep the government of North Korea in line. They have to be pushed gently by the international community to live according to international rules, the United Nations Charter, which protects not just the rights of individuals but the rights of nations. It is important that the U.S. and our allies sit down with China on an equal footing even if it doesn't like Chinese behavior, and likewise with Russia and even North Korea. There is a greater purpose at work here. 

Minister Gupta, a former Government official from India to Afghanistan reminded the

attendees that, according to Hinduism, “we should unite together and protect ourselves. There should be no hatred among ourselves. We are one family under God. We make big peace with love and affection. That is the message of UPF. If we want to win the heart of China we must give them peace. Peace comes from a heart, mind, and soul. It cannot be imposed upon anybody. There is a Hindu prayer for peace: Oh God, lead us from the unreal to the Real. Oh God, lead us from darkness to light. Oh God, lead us from death to immortality. Shanti, Shanti, Shanti unto all.”

Rev. Moon said: “My peace plan starts from the level of the individual. First we must find peace with God, then peace with our fellowman, and finally we can secure world peace.” 

---------------------
“The Role of China as a Partner for Economic and Political Stability in Asia and the World”

Host: Dr. Antonio Betancourt - Director, UPF Office of Peace and Security Affairs, Washington, DC
Moderator: Ralph Winnie Jr., Director of Global Business Development and the Eurasian Business Coalition’s China Program

Attendees:

Hari Bindal - President, American Society of Engineers of Indian Origin
Dr. Ray Brogan - Adjunct Psychology Professor, Kaplan University
Jan Duplain - Embassy Liaison, Office for Trade Promotion, Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center
Prof. Diane Falk - Research writer and editor
Min. Amar Nath Gupta – Former Government official from India to Afghanistan; and Founder, Rajdhani Mandir Hindu Temple
Ms. Sunita Gupta - Capitol Hill Hindu Temple
John Kukor – Former U.S. Air Force Intelligence Officer
Barbara Mosely-Marks - Founder/Coordinator, Virginia Parent’s Day Alliance
H.E. Subhas Chandra Mungra - Ambassador, Embassy of Suriname
William Reed - President, Black Press International
Dr. Mark P. Barry - Advisor, UPF Office of Peace and Security Affairs (Observer) Dr. William Selig - Deputy Director, UPF Office of Peace and Security Affairs, Washington, DC 

Dennis Rodman serenades ‘friend for life’ Kim Jong-un; apologizes for obscenity-laced interview

2014-01-10

By Martin Sieff

ormer U.S. basketball superstar Dennis Rodman not only led other NBA players in a special exhibition game in North Korea on Jan. 8, to celebrate the birthday of his “friend for life” Kim Jong-un, he also sang happy birthday to the repressive dictator.

Kim is believed to have turned 31 and is celebrating the event as reports circulate that his aunt Kim Kyong-hui, 68, has committed suicide or died of a heart attack following the execution last month of her husband Jang Sung-taek on the young leader’s orders.

Long notorious for his cross-dressing and other outrageous antics, Rodman made clear he cared nothing for such reports or for Kim Jong-un’s well-documented record of mass executions, and enslavement of scores of thousands of his own citizens ingulag-style concentration camps.

Rodman, 52, who played on five National Basketball Association championship teams in the 1990s, became loudly abusive when interviewed on CNN on Jan. 7 about his fourth visit within a year to reclusive North Korea, the most closed society on the planet.

Interviewed from Pyongyang, he defended Kim Jong-un, telling the network’s Chris Cuomo, “I love my friend. This is my friend.”

In the past, Rodman had boasted that he would raise the issue of Kenneth Bae, a Korean-American and U.S. citizen who has been jailed in North Korea.

Rodman belligerent during interview

Rodman lost his temper with Cuomo and became defensive and abusive when asked if he would raise Bae’s plight during his visit.

“Kenneth Bae did one thing. ... If you understand what Kenneth Bae did. Do you understand what he did in this country? No, no, no, you tell me, you tell me. Why is he held captive here in this country, why? ... I would love to speak on this,” he claimed in increasingly confused comments.

Bae, a father of three, was arrested in November 2012 and sentenced last May to 15 years of hard labor in North Korea on charges of “hostile acts” and accusations that he tried to topple the government.

Bae’s sister, Terry Chung, later told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that the family was “shocked and just outraged” by Rodman’s comments.

Referring to the team of retired basketball players he had recruited to play in the Pyongyang game, Rodman said, “You know, you’ve got 10 guys here, 10 guys here, they’ve left their families, they’ve left their damn families, to help this country, as in a sports venture. That’s 10 guys, all these guys here, do anyone understand that? Christmas, New Year’s. ... “I don’t give a rat’s ass what the hell you think. I’m saying to you, look at these guys here, look at them ... they dared to do one thing, they came here.”

Before departing from Beijing on the last leg of his flight, Rodman informed reporters at the airport, while holding a bottle of Carlsberg beer, that he would not discuss North Korea’s appalling human rights record with his host. Instead, he defended Kim Jong-un as a “good guy” and a “friend,” South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported on Jan. 8.

Two days after the CNN interview, Rodman released a statement apologizing to Bae’s family and Cuomo as well as Rodman’s teammates and management for the comments he made in the interview, blaming alcohol and stress.

“I want to apologize. … I take full responsibility for my actions. It had been a very stressful day. Some of my teammates were leaving because of pressure from their families and business associates. My dreams of basketball diplomacy was quickly falling apart. I had been drinking. It’s not an excuse but by the time the interview happened I was upset. I was overwhelmed. It’s not an excuse, it’s just the truth,” he said in the statement.

Rodman, widely regarded as a colorful has-been in his native United States, is increasing the frequency of his visits to Kim. The latest trip follows one in December to train North Korean basketball players.

“People always say that North Korea is like a really communist country, that people are not allowed to go there. I just know the fact that, you know, to me he’s a nice guy, to me. Nice guy, you know. Whatever he does political-wise, that’s not my job,” theChosun Ilbo quoted him as saying.

Kim’s actions departure from father’s rule

Kim has been a spectacular and highly unpredictable departure from the carefully shielded and orchestrated formal reverence required by his father Kim Jong-il and grandfather Kim Il-sung during the 66 years they ruled North Korea from September 1945 to December 2011. But even by his standards of alternating jovial extroversion and bonhomie with ferocious public executions, his public presentation of his friendship with Rodman has been unprecedented, and some experts believe it may be damaging his public standing.

“The behavior of young North Korean leader has already raised many eyebrows. It suffices to mention his marriage to Ri Sol-ju, a girl with a bohemian past, or his strange affection for Dennis Rodman, an eccentric athlete who did not bother to take off his cap in front of the Leader,” Tatiana Gabroussenko, professor of North Korean studies at Korea University, pointed out in an article in Asia Times Online in December.

Ralph Winnie, vice president of the Eurasian Business Coalition, told the Asia Pacific Defense Forum [APDF] that Kim appeared to have a rational motive in part for his public hosting and adulation of Rodman.

“He has used Rodman to try and showcase the new tourism and ski resorts he has built. Apparently he believes North Korea can generate needed hard currency from attracting foreign visitors to these outlets though the amount of revenue he would raise appears to be minimal at best,” Winnie said. “But there seems no doubt that his affection for Rodman and pleasure in his company is genuine.”

Media reported Rodman went skiing in North Korea the day after the exhibition game. One former NBA player who participated in the exhibition, Charles Smith, left North Korea after blaming Rodman for tainting efforts by the others to bring diplomacy to the country.

Rodman paid his first visit to North Korea last February when Kim was on the receiving end of unprecedented international isolation after carrying out the country’s third underground nuclear test in defiance of United Nations Security Council Resolutions.

During that visit, Rodman, began what CNN described as “an unlikely friendship” with Kim when the athlete led a group of Harlem Globetrotters for an exhibition basketball game attended by Kim.

The U.S. government has distanced itself from Rodman’s visit. CNN reported that White House spokesman Jay Carney described Rodman as taking a private trip. The Obama administration has called for Bae’s release in the past “and our views about Kenneth Bae have not changed,” Carney said.

After Kim ordered his uncle, veteran statesman Jang Sung-taek, executed, international criticism caused Paddy Power, the online betting company that had backed Rodman’s exhibition trip, to pull out of the project.

Pyongyang seeks continued economic relations with Beijing

2014-01-17

Analysis by Martin Sieff

South Korea analysts say North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un plans to maintain cordial economic ties with China even after publicly executing China’s main ally and friend in Pyongyang for 30 years, his uncle Jang Sung-taek.

Jang was shown on national television being humiliated and hauled out of a ruling Politburo Dec. 12 meeting before beingexecuted.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service says Kim is confident he has come up with a strategy that will ensure China continues its support of his country.

“North Korea is cozying up to China after executing former eminence grise [Jang], who had close ties with Beijing,” South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported. The newspaper often breaks stories from the South Korea’s intelligence community.

The newspaper said the Chinese media were continuing to report favorably on continued relations with North Korea. Chinese newspapers covered North Korean participation in an exhibition in China’s Hubei Province, Chosun Ilbo reported. “The exhibition features traditional crafts, liquor, stamps, paintings and other products from China, North Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam,” the newspaper said.

Asian newspapers also have reported that Kim recognized the importance of reassuring China about continued economic relations after the execution of his uncle. The Hong Kong weekly newspaper Yazhou Zhoukan reported that Pyongyang sought Beijing’s understanding after Jang’s execution and asked to discuss a visit by Kim. So far, the government of President Xi Jinping has held Kim at arm’s length.

Vice Marshal Choe Ryong-hae, who traveled to China in May, is the highest-ranking North Korean envoy to visit China in the two years Kim has held power.

The Yazhou Zhoukan report confirmed that the choice of Choe as “point” envoy to Beijing was meant to inform the Chinese that Choe would replace Jang as the key liaison between the countries. But the paper said Chinese leaders did not draw this conclusion from Choe’s visit at the time.

In the short term, Kim has succeeded in persuading China to continue business-as-usual relations. South Korean newspapers report that China continues to crack down on North Korean defectors attempting to escape their country across its northern border to Chinese Manchuria across the Yalu River, just as Pyongyang wants.

Kim takes control

Kim’s behavior following Jang’s execution indicated that the leader was determined to maintain his country’s crucial relationship with China, but also that he had feared Jang’s long control of Pyongyang’s bilateral ties gave him too much power, Ralph Winnie, chief of the China program at the Eurasian Business Coalition, told Asia Pacific Defense Forum [APDF].

“It is all about control,” Winnie said. “Jang had enjoyed full control of the relationship with China for decades. Kim Jong-il [Kim Jong-un’s father and predecessor, who died in December 2011] was comfortable with this arrangement, but Kim Jong-un was not. He was determined to rule on his own terms. Taking control of the China relationship into his own hands will send that message to the Chinese. It sends the same message to his own people.”

However, taking control of the relationship does not mean that Kim wants to terminate it or endanger it, Winnie said.

“Kim Jong-un certainly wants to retain the support of the Chinese leadership,” he told APDF. “But he also is determined to show them who really runs the show in North Korea. And he wants to increase his leverage with the Chinese.”

“Removing the people they have always relied upon to implement cooperation and keep track of internal developments in the North will certainly increase the uncertainty of the Chinese government in its dealings with Pyongyang,” Winnie said.

At China’s foreign ministry briefing on Dec. 13, authorities described the execution of Jang as purely internal affairs for Pyongyang. Foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei reiterated the standard line that as a good neighbor, China only wants to have stability in North Korea and see its people living in happiness.

Hong also expressed the standard sentiment that bilateral economic relations remained mutually beneficial and that China looked forward to expanding them.

Economic projects with China could be in jeopardy

Relations with China could be endangered if Kim expands his purge to topple or execute hundreds of officials who played key roles in projects with China that Jang oversaw as part of his economic empire. The Chosun Ilbo reported this could happen.

“The sharply worded article in North Korea’s state media that accused him [Jang] of treason also said he personally profited from deals with outside countries in the Rajin-Sonbong special economic zone. It also accused him of being bribed by enemies,” the article said.

Daniel Pinkston, deputy director for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, told the Chosun Ilbo there is a real danger that Jang’s execution could hurt the North Korean economy by disrupting many of the vital cooperation projects with China.

“The next person to come in to run these operations that Jang had been running, I think will be under orders to renegotiate the contracts and renegotiate the prices, but of course the Chinese businessmen on the other side will want to fulfill the contracts they’ve already signed, so this will damage the poor reputation that North Korea already has, and it will have a negative impact on their ability to conduct international business,” he told the newspaper.

“China has long provided an economic aid to North Korea as well as much of the country’s food aid. Exports from China to North Korea totaled $590 million last year,” the Chosun Ilbo said.

China is ‘embarrassed and disgusted’

Veteran Asian affairs analyst Pepe Escobar agreed with Winnie’s assessment that Kim might well try and use the purge of his uncle to extort more favorable treatment and terms of cooperation from China.

“Jang was close to Beijing – and he wanted a lot of Chinese investment,” Escobar wrote in Asia Times Online. “No one knows how this purge will affect business. Those subscribing to the view of North Korea as a Mob operation will see the purge as a tactic to raise the price for North Korean ‘cooperation’ with the Chinese.”

“That’s not so far-fetched. Pyongyang does depend on China, but it will never allow itself to become a mere puppet,” he said.

China, U.S. seek peaceful resolution in East China Sea

2014-02-27

Analysis by Martin Sieff

Continuing efforts to find common ground highlighted by the California summit last summer involving the leaders of China and the United States, U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Ray Odierno met with People’s Liberation Army Chief of the General Staff Gen. Fang Fenghui in Beijing.

At the end of his two-day visit that began Feb. 22, Odierno said China and the U.S. would establish regular high-level dialogue between their armies to promote better understanding and avoid possible conflict, South China Morning Post reported.

“We want to expand our co-operation at a very high level, and then manage our differences constructively,” Odierno said.

Ralph Winnie, director of the China program at the Eurasian Business Coalition told the Asia Pacific Defense Forum that the Odierno-Fang talks represented the norm in U.S.-China strategic relations.

“Both sides want to adhere to the road map created by presidents Xi [Jinping] and [Barack] Obama at their California summit last June,” he said. “The maintenance of good and stable ties is essential for the prosperity and future of both countries.”

The United States in recent months has worked to strengthen its constructive relationship with China’s People’s Liberation Army [PLA] leadership.

However, relations between China and Japan, which is the oldest and closest ally of the U.S. in Northeast Asia, have deteriorated sharply in recent months, especially over the disputed sovereignty of the Senkaku [known as Diaoyu in China] islands in the East China Sea.

Mission Action 2013

A U.S. Navy analyst warned that a major Chinese combined operations military exercise called Mission Action 2013 appeared to have as its goal the practiced destruction of all Japanese military forces in the East China Sea.

Capt. James Fanell warned that a PLA exercise last year appeared to be a preparation for a “short sharp war” against Japan in the East China Sea aimed at seizing the Senkaku Islands.

“We witnessed the massive amphibious and cross-military region enterprise,” the deputy chief of staff intelligence and information operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet [PACFLEET] told the West 2014 conference in San Diego, Calif. The conference was organized by the U.S. Naval Institute, an independent professional association founded in 1873.

Fanell said “that the massive Mission Action 2013 exercise between all three branches of the PLA last year was aimed at preparing for a war to defeat Japan’s Self Defense Forces in a conflict in the East China Sea,” The Diplomat magazine reported on Feb. 19.

“We witnessed the massive amphibious and cross military region enterprise — Mission Action 2013,” U.S. Naval Institute News [USNI] quoted Fanell. “[U.S. analysts] concluded that the PLA has been given the new task to be able to conduct a short sharp war to destroy Japanese forces in the East China Sea following with what can only be expected a seizure of the Senkakus or even a southern Ryukyu [islands] — as some of their academics say.”

Fanell said China was expanding training for its navy beyond the “long-standing task to restore Taiwan to the mainland.”

Unresolved territorial disputes plague region

Fanell also warned about growing tensions and risks of conflict throughout the East and South China seas, which are the locations for a series of unresolved territorial disputes between China and several of its neighbors including Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam.

“Tensions in the South and East China Seas have deteriorated with the Chinese Coast Guard playing the role of antagonist, harassing China’s neighbors while PLA Navy ships, their protectors, [make] port calls throughout the region promising friendship and cooperation,” Fanell told USNI.

“Protection of maritime rights is a Chinese euphemism for coerced seizure of coastal rights of China’s neighbor,” he said.

“Fanell also predicted China, which declared an air defense zone last year in the East China Sea where it is locked in a territorial dispute with Japan over a string of small islands, would declare another air defense zone by the end of 2015, this time in the South China Sea,” Reuters news agency reported.

“There is growing concern that China’s pattern of behavior in the South China Sea reflects an incremental effort by China to assert control of the area contained in the so-called 9-dash line despite the objections of its neighbors, and despite the lack of any explanation or apparent basis under international law,” Fanell said.

China challenges officer’s statements

Chinese analysts reacted in a matter-of-fact way to Fanell’s warnings.

Senior Col. Li Jie of the PLA Navy’s Military Academy told the South China Morning Post that Fanell’s comments “about China’s intention to declare another air defense identification zone [ADIZ] were meant to deter China from making such a move.”

Li told the South China Morning Post that this statement was “a typical U.S. diplomatic strategy.”

“Washington is very concerned about the tension developing in the South China Sea, which will relate to its strategic interests,” he said. “The establishment of another ADIZ over the South China Sea is necessary for China's long-term national interest.”

Ukraine crisis has China walking line between Russia and U.S.

2014-03-12

Analysis by Martin Sieff

The Ukraine crisis is putting China on the horns of a dilemma between Russia on one side and the United States and Western Europe on the other.

“The Chinese views of this crisis are extremely complex,” Charles W. Freeman, Jr., co-chairman of the U.S. China Policy Foundation, told Asia Pacific Defense Forum [APDF] in an interview. “I think the Chinese are probably counselling restraint in Moscow.”

On March 2, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang “urged all sides involved in the Ukraine situation to comply with international law and seek a political solution to their disputes through dialogue and negotiations.

“China is deeply concerned with the current Ukraine situation,” Qin told reporters. He had been asked to state China’s position after the Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian parliament, authorized President Vladimir Putin to use military force if he judged it necessary to protect Russian citizens and soldiers in Ukrainian territory.

Qin condemned the use of violence by all parties in the Ukraine crisis. China’s state news agency Xinhua reported Qin said China had advised all sides in Ukraine to resolve their conflicts peacefully in accordance with the country’s law, safeguard the legitimate rights of the Ukrainian people and reestablish social order as quickly as possible.

Qin emphasized that China was basing its position on the Ukrainian issue on the principle of non-interference in any country’s internal affairs. Beijing continued to respect the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, Xinhua reported.

Continuing good relations and steadily expanding trade with both the 27-nation European Union and the United States are central to President Xi Jinping’s strategy.

“The political legitimacy of all modern Chinese governments rests on their continuing ability to provide economic growth and rising standards of living to their people,” Ralph Winnie, head of the China program at the Eurasian Business Coalition, told APDF.

China seeks to maintain relations with U.S., Russia

China needs the continued friendship of the United States. However, China also has strong connections with and sympathies for Russia.

Russia has been China’s main strategic ally for almost 13 years since the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was launched in its completed form at the Shanghai summit on June 15, 2001.

China also shares Russia’s concern that the United States and the EU might use the excuse of pro-democracy protests or full-scale revolutions to topple friendly neighboring governments or even eventually decentralize their own countries.

“On the one hand, the Chinese look at Ukraine and draw a comparison with Taiwan,” sympathizing with Russia’s desire to at least increase its influence on a major territory it ruled for centuries,” Freeman said.

“The Chinese also draw parallels between Crimea’s status in Ukraine and Tibet’s continuing inclusion their own country,” he said. “China is not going to champion the principle of self-determination in any context.”

Beijing has made clear that it wants to retain good relations with the new, pro-Western coalition government of Ukraine in Kiev, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying announced in Beijing on March 4. China wanted to maintain and expand its existing strategic partnership with Ukraine on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, Xinhua reported.

Hua told a daily press briefing that the Beijing government continues to monitor events unfolding in Ukraine and expressed hope that conditions are improving.

China takes cautious public stance

“We hope that the political process of resolving the crisis in Ukraine will continue to move ahead within the framework of the law,” Hua said.

Italian analyst Francesco Sisci, writing in Asia Times Online on March 5 argued that behind their careful, cautious public statements, Chinese leaders had been shocked by the toppling of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych by public protests and that they fundamentally remained on the side of Russia in the crisis.

“China has been shocked by developments in Ukraine, and it has sided with Russia, fearful that similar revolutions could threaten Beijing and also that a defeat in Ukraine could irritate Russia,” wrote Sisci, who is a columnist for the Italian daily newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore.

While China wanted to avoid angering the United States and the European Union in the crisis, it did not want to alienate Russia, its main strategic ally, Sisci wrote.

“For Beijing, distancing itself from Moscow at this moment would also arouse suspicions that China may be interested in weakening Russia’s hand in general, something that could help China in Central Asia and Siberia, where its economic might is growing and Moscow is scared for it,” he wrote.

Freeman agreed that China continues to regard Russia as a partner in maintaining security across Eurasia, and that this attitude also factored into China’s position on the crisis.

China’s response to U.S. focus on Asia

“The Chinese have responded to the Obama administration’s ‘[rebalance] to Asia’ by strengthening their ties with Russia in order to create a compensating strategic depth for themselves in Eurasia,” he told APDF.

A Xinhua commentary, reprinted in the state-published China Daily on March 5, stated, “With the EU having proved unable to broker peace in Ukraine, the West should now show more appreciation for what Russia can do to solve the crisis. Given Russia's historical and cultural influence in the country, the Kremlin is the piece that cannot be missing in this political puzzle.”

“The United States and European countries must work with, not against, Russia to tackle the crisis,” it concluded

North Korea missile tests signal ‘business as usual’

2014-03-04

Analysis by Martin Sieff

The North Korean military test-fired four projectiles a day after the historic reunion of families separated for more than 60 years since the Korean War, signaling a return to business as usual for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

“The North fired four projectiles which we presume were short-range ballistic missilesfrom Kitdaeryong in Anbyon, Kangwon Province in a northeasterly direction into the sea,” a South Korean Defense Ministry official in Seoul told the Chosun Ilbo newspaper in comments reported on Feb. 28. “We presume the missiles to have a range of more than 200 kilometers [120 miles].”

North Korea fired two more missiles off its eastern coast four days later. South Korean officials said those missiles had a longer range – 500 kilometers [300 miles]. Defense ministry officials said they are on high alert and are monitoring the launches. They called on North Korea to stop testing missiles.

The launches were intentional and “a kind of provocation,” South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said, according to South Korea’s official Yonhap news agency. South Korean officials think the missiles were Scud-type, Spokesman Kim said. Pyongyang launched the missiles in response to the regular United States-South Korean joint military exercises that began on Feb. 24, he said according to Yonhap.

More than 12,500 U.S. troops participated in the exercises which include Key Resolve, a computer-based simulation, and Foal Eagle, which involves air, ground and naval drills.

North Korea had demanded that the regular joint exercises be cancelled, “claiming that they are a rehearsal for a war against it,” Yonhap said. North Korea test fired the missiles in Kitdaeryong, a mountainous area about 40 kilometers [24 miles] south of Wonsan where trucks carrying missiles and launchers are easily concealed, the Chosun Ilbo said.

South Korea, Japan take measured response

South Korean President Park Geun-hye took a measured response to the latest incident.

“The government and military authorities believe Pyongyang has no intention of seriously dampening an ongoing cross-border detente given that the missiles had a short range and were not fired toward the South,” the Chosun Ilbo said.

The Japanese government was equally steady in its reaction. There would be no increase in the alert levels of the country’s defense forces, senior spokesman Yoshihide Suga said.

“At this point in time, we are not thinking that this has affected our country’s security or that an emergency has happened,” he said in comments carried by the BBC.

The test-firings marked “the North’s first firing of a Scud missile since 2009,” South Korean spokesman Kim said. This “poses a threat to South Korea as the whole Korean Peninsula is in range,” he said.

Kim Jong-un is adhering to the pattern of carefully calibrated defiance that had characterized the weapons tests of his father and predecessor, Kim Jong-il, Ralph Winnie told Asia Pacific Defense Forum. Winnie is vice president of the Eurasian Business Coalition.

“There is a rationality behind such moves by Pyongyang,” he said. “North Korea fears being ignored and dismissed. There has long been a widespread sense that they can only gain the leverage they believe they need in diplomatic negotiations and seeking economic concessions if they are seen as developing their own weapons programs. They are determined to maintain the sense in the United States and among their neighbors that they cannot be ignored.”

North Korea has 3 types of Scud missiles

North Korea “has three types of Scud missiles – the Scud B with a range of 300 kilometers [180 miles], the Scud C with a range of 500 kilometers [300 miles] and the Scud D with a range of 700 kilometers [420 miles],” Yonhap news agency reports.

North Korea’s missile launches are seen as response to the start of the annual joint exercises, but they were not the only responses.

On Feb. 24, “the first day of the drills, North Korea briefly violated the tense western sea border three times, following [the previous] week’s firing of what military sources believed to be a new type of rocket larger than 300mm-caliber from a multiple rocket launcher,” the South Korean news agency said.

In fact, North Korea’s series of responses to the latest joint exercises appeared carefully calibrated to express their usual anger, but without risking any further escalation.

South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Kim noted that there had been no indications of any other missile launches or any other form of provocation against South Korea, Yonhap said.

The “North has banned its fishing boats from operating in the East and Yellow Sea, and put its troops in the border region on ‘special alert,’” other South Korean government officials told Yonhap.

The timing of the missile launches suggested that North Korea wanted to signal it had not gone soft in its reaction to the regular joint U.S.-South Korean exercises, but that it did not want to jeopardize the cautiously improved relations indicated by its approval of the families reunion, the first set of meetings of the kind to have been held in four years. The test missiles were only fired after the reunion meetings were completed.

Ukraine crisis: China, India tread carefully

2014-03-21

Analysis by Martin Sieff

The crisis in Ukraine has provoked a complex spectrum of reactions across Asia. India, which has strong and growing defense ties, has been supportive of Russia. China, Russia’s partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, has had a more complicated position.

China sat on the fence when the United Nations Security Council meeting in New York City deadlocked on a draft resolution on the crisis on March 15.

“China does not agree to a move of confrontation,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang stated after the vote, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

Russia used its veto power as one of the five UN Security Council Permanent Members to block the draft resolution, drawn up by the United States and backed by Western countries. That resolution stated the March 16 referendum organized by Russia on the status of the Crimea “can have no validity” and urged nations and international organizations not to recognize it.

“The vote on the draft resolution by the Security Council at this juncture will only result in confrontation and further complicate the situation, which is not in conformity with the common interests of both the people of Ukraine and those of the international community,” Qin said.

China always respected the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states, Qin said. This remains the long-standing fundamental foreign policy principle of the Beijing government.

“In the current situation, we call on all sides to remain calm and exercise restraint to avoid further escalation of the tensions,” Qin said.

“China holds an objective and fair position on the Ukraine issue,” Liu Jieyi, Chinese permanent representative to the UN, told the Security Council, according to Xinhua.

India: Russia has ‘legitimate interests’ in Ukraine

In contrast to China’s balancing act, the government of India has not hesitated to support Russia’s takeover of the Crimea.

“India believes Russia has ‘legitimate interests’ in Ukraine – a position that is opposed to the stand of the west on the latest crisis. Interestingly, China has opposed Russia’s intervention in Crimea, deviating from a long-standing support to Moscow in the UN Security Council,” The Times of India reported on March 8.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs issued a statement March 13 expressing concern “at the subsequent escalation of tension, especially in view of the presence of more than 5,000 Indian nationals, including about 4,000 students, in different parts of Ukraine.”

“There are legitimate Russian and other interests involved and we hope they are discussed and resolved,” National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon told The Times of India.

China ‘triangulation’ seeks to avoid clash with U.S.

China’s careful approach to the crisis was determined by its continuing close trade and investment relationship with the United States, Ralph Winnie, director of the China program at the Eurasian Business Coalition, told Asia Pacific Defense Forum [APDF].

“President Xi [Jinping]’s government, like those that preceded it over the past 35 years, draws its ultimate legitimacy from its continued success in maintaining and raising China’s standard of living. Therefore continued stable global conditions for economic growth, the attraction of international investment and continued stable ties with the United States remain its abiding priority,” he said.

“The Chinese therefore genuinely want to see threatening international crises quickly and peacefully resolved and they also want to avoid any break with Russia just as they are determined to maintain good relations with the United States,” he told APDF.

This Chinese “triangulation” position to avoid any clash with Washington while avoiding any open break with Moscow is recognized across Asia.

Writing in the Malaysian newspaper The Star on March 16, Bunn Nagara, a senior fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies [ISIS] Malaysia argued that it even overrode comparisons with China’s domestic national security concerns.

“Lopsided understanding has produced naïve hopes that China would weigh in on the US/EU side against Russia on the UN Security Council. The assumption is that Beijing would not want to see a part of China break away like Crimea,” Nagara wrote.

Beijing’s moderation revealed that “China’s ethos has changed,” analyst Rowan Callick wrote in The Australian on March 13.

“To a remarkably wide-ranging degree, China … is engaged economically, and even socially, with the world at large, through trade, study, mutual investment and cultural curiosity,” he wrote.

Callick identified the central dilemma for China in determining its position on Crimea and the Ukraine.

“The Ukraine move presents difficulties for Beijing, of course, because China has long and strenuously opposed all interventions in the domestic affairs of other countries, and an invasion would certainly appear to come into that category,” he wrote.

China is also concerned that if Russia feels emboldened by its takeover of Crimea, it might try to regain its old power and standing in the energy-rich former Soviet republics of Central Asia at Beijing’s expense, Callick warned.

“The largely landlocked ‘stans’ of Central Asia, most of which used to be Russian satellites, most recently via the Soviet Union, are mostly also heavily dependent on energy production.”

“Will the Crimea grab enhance the value of their output, or perhaps tempt Moscow to tighten its influence over them, in competition with Beijing?” he asked. “And might the unfolding of events in Ukraine inspire breakaway and nationalist elements in the ‘stans’ too, with Russia perhaps more willing to consider requests to answer pleas for help? There must be concerns.”